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Gold's Plunge Keeps Bearish Pattern Alive


Retracing Wednesday's surge was just the first step to resuming the decline.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Gold's reaction down Thursday was the minimum requirement to maintain the pattern's bearish potential. Sellers don't have much time to rest on their laurels if the reversal down is valid.

Dollar Basket
Thursday's probes of fresh lows were only momentary, and Wednesday's lows essentially contained Thursday's session. So it is difficult to label it as a confirming second consecutive lower close. An immediate recovery attempt would be credible, but not signaled.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
More testing of the rally's 1.3333 objective extended through Thursday. Not that it wasn't volatile; it was up to 1.3391 overnight and down to 1.3278 intraday. Retesting the overnight high would be usual before a durable downleg could begin.

Aug Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Not closing back under 1385.00 Wednesday, its surge to 1390.00-1393.50 resistance required closing back under 1377.00 Thursday in order to be invalidated. Thursday's open gapped down to 1385.00 and extended lower to 1377.00. Then bounces held 1385.00 before extending down to 1373.00, so that 1377.00 was being tested as resistance in to the close. The decline should not delay resuming Friday morning, or else it must resume with a vengeance Sunday night.

Jul Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Wednesday's bounce to 21.80 resistance was rejected immediately. Thursday's 21.50 low retested Tuesday's 21.57 opening gap to neutralize its attraction, having probed "higher prior lows" in the interim. Closing any lower Friday would signal the decline was extending. But now closing above 21.80 could seal a bottom

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Thursday's weak auction barely affected the gap up that had been testing the 139-22 resistance, which had attracted the two prior sessions. The outstanding retest of 138-05 and potentially fresh lows at 137-30 might be delayed by a detour to 140-16/140-24.

Crude Oil
Jul Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Wednesday's recovery to 96.00 extended the narrow sideways ranging sideways Thursday. Any early trending Friday would be likely to extend intraday.

Natural Gas
Thursday's gap down and fresh low down to 3.71 reversed up sharply on EIA, back through Wednesday's 3.77 close to 3.85. That also filled another gap at 3.80, and tested week-old "higher prior lows." Back under 3.77 would target the decline's outstanding 3.55-3.60 objective. Otherwise, extending above 3.88 could also test 4.00.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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