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Gold's Bounce Creates Room to Absorb Another Round of Sellers


A durable bottom would retest last week's low.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Gold didn't wait for a retest of last week's low before rallying sharply Monday. That can extend a little higher, but it undermines the recovery's durability not to have fully formed the bottom.

Dollar Basket
Monday's gap down trended down intraday, but only slightly, and only within Friday's range. The biased inside day setup tends to resolve in the trend's original direction, at least to retest the recent extreme.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Monday's gap up trended up intraday, but only slightly, and only within Friday's range. The biased inside day setup tends to resolve in the trend's original direction, at least to retest the recent extreme.

Aug Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Monday's open gapped up to and through the 1232.00 buy signal, and extended sharply higher, putting into play 1271.50 so long as 1248.50 and 1240.00 hold as support. Friday's 1197.40 opening gap must still be retested.

Sep Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Last week's outperformance disappeared Monday as fresh highs up to 20.00 resistance reacted back down to almost unchanged at 19.50, while gold soared. Closing above 19.70 would extend the rally, which must otherwise retrace to test 18.75.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Despite still holding above 135-00 and price firming, no rally was yet launched, and none is signaled. The ineffectual optimism ahead of this week's economic reports is starting to become a bigger concern, since little time is remaining for a bottom to form.

Crude Oil
Aug Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
The rally resumed Sunday night to help Monday's open gap up to probe fresh highs testing 98.30. A brief dip was recovered to retest the morning's high. Extending higher without delay would be likely to trend through the 98.45-99.00 objective.

Natural Gas
Aug Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:UNG, UNL)
Fresh lows overnight were recovered in time for Monday to fluctuate around unchanged, still needing to recover 3.62 before even attacking the 3.73 buy signal.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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