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Gold's Pop-Up Is Sign of Posturing Ahead of Friday's NFP


Wednesday's rally brings it back in-line (almost) with silver.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.
Today's Highlight: Currencies still ranging,bonds still falling, and metals finally rallying. Seems like a whole lot of houses being put in order ahead of Friday's Employment Situation report.

Dollar Basket
Wednesday's fresh high was a good start, but needs immediate follow-through Thursday to confirm the rally has resumed. One bullish scenario would suggest there not be too much follow-through Thursday, leaving pent-up buying pressure to react favorably Friday. The other bullish scenario depends on extending much higher already Thursday, creating room to absorb a negative reaction down Friday without it damaging the chart's breakout.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Two to three sessions of ineffectual optimism were neutralized by Wednesday's dip back to prior lows. It's not yet a breakout, so not extending down immediately Thursday wouldn't undermine sellers, that is unless it were to bounce to fresh highs for the week.

Jun Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Tuesday's signs that the decline's pace was slowing were exploited without delay overnight, surging through the 1285.50 buy signal to attack 1295.00. Being a correction, there are no actual targets, but above 1298.00 would have potential to 1317.00. Back under 1285.50 would resume the decline targeting 1249.00 or 1237.50.

May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
One week of ranging supported by 19.75 finally resolved up, gapping up Wednesday above 20.00, and targeting 20.70 so long as 19.75 continues holding as support.

30-year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
The reaction down from the rally's 134-06 target has now extended back to the last upleg's 131-24 origin. Its 61.8% retracement and room for noise around that both gave way. This may have created a lot of room to absorb an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction to Friday's Employment Situation report, unless Thursday's close were to recover 132-24.

Crude Oil
May Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Still consolidating its reaction down from attacking the first target at 102.35. Back above 99.80 and 101.00 would resume the rally, launching a new upleg.

Natural Gas
Wednesday rallied immediately after Tuesday's drop filled the gap outstanding from its recent low. That's not usually the one to chase, although this one did well on the day. But more important, the sign of life suggests buying a pullback, or a pullback's recovery. EIA reports Thursday.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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