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Gold Is Fighting Its New Downleg


Rallying prematurely last time didn't work out so well.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Gold rallied sharply Sunday night, but it did not really rally at all after Monday's open. Despite the degree of the overnight rally and not yet rejecting it, it's difficult to give its sponsorship much credibility for more than a corrective bounce.

Dollar Basket
Monday's "inside day" trended with too shallow of a slope - if it trended intraday, at all - for there to be any new bias.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Monday's gap up extended too slightly for its sponsorship to be considered strong-handed.

Aug Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Sunday night's probe above the 1226.50 bounce limit extended to 1237.50 after Monday's open. Its intraday dip to 1229.00 was recovered entirely, but only to range around the opening gap's print. Closing any higher would suggest at least a bigger bounce underway targeting 1250.00. Otherwise, back under 1226.50 would resume the decline.

Sep Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Although Monday's open gapped up above 18.88 resistance that had restrained Friday's ranging, the balance of the session only ranged narrowly, its lower-end supported by 19.00. But that wasn't enough to invalidate Friday's break, which remains intact, albeit targeting only 18.50-18.55.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Sunday night's gap up nonetheless reversed down to probe under the 132-16 target that was met Friday. The new trend low was recovered to close well into positive territory testing 133-16, forming a bullish pivot reversal, and above 132-26/133-00 to suggest the drop had ended. Not extending higher immediately Tuesday would next target 128-10/128-14 below.

Crude Oil
Aug Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Sunday night's rally to fresh highs attacking 104.00 was reversed in time to gap down Monday, but the balance of the session only fluctuated narrowly around unchanged. The rally's momentum is in jeopardy since there was no second consecutive higher close.

Natural Gas
Aug Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:UNG, UNL)
Last week's trapped shorts were squeezed at Monday's opening gap up from 3.55-3.60 to test 3.73 resistance. A second consecutive higher close Tuesday would confirm 3.96 and 4.10 in-play.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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