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Gold Greets the Week With Fresh Lows, but They Don't Last


Last week ended without the market reflecting fear, and it's only getting more complacent.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: A skittish start to the week found most markets unwilling to trend. Even gold, which traded down sharply overnight, managed a bounce that filled the open's gap back up to Thursday's high. If expiration and the holiday weekend inhibited volatility, then the balance of the week should pick up the pace significantly.   

Dollar Basket
Monday's dip above the recent narrow range only offset Thursday's momentary probe under it. But extending any higher to 80.15 would qualify as a false break that could then react down more substantially to fresh lows.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Thursday's opening surge had been retraced before the weekend, and then it extended down deeper into the new week. The recent narrow range hasn't yet been broken substantially enough in either direction to qualify even as a false break. But a false break remains likely.

Jun Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Monday's opening gap spiked down to immediately retest last week's plunge, confirming that the interim bounce had held resistance. The gap back up to Thursday's close was filled, and could be exceeded to include "higher prior lows" around 1298.00. But a drop to new lows remains likely.

May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Gapping down Monday settled very quickly into a relatively narrow range just under 19.40. That neutralized the gap back down to last Tuesday's opening gap. It's not a buy signal, but now a buy signal would be credible.

30-Year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Monday's bounce held "higher prior lows" at 134-10 and reacted down. Closing under 134-06 should then leave no upside attractions to further delay extending a much deeper drop targeting at least 132-10.

Crude Oil
May Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Sunday night weakness wasn't very weak, and Monday weakness wasn't weak at all. The extended narrowing range at 104.50-105.00 suggests the first trending attempt will be a false break that reverses more substantially in the opposite direction.

Natural Gas
Overnight attempts to extend higher weren't duplicated intraday Monday, and the recent bounce remains vulnerable to being retraced.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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