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Does Natural Gas Need to Push Back for a Little While?

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Recent range's characteristics suggest its rally has bitten off more than it can chew for now.

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The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Has natural gas's blowout blown itself out? Fluctuating widely between two relevant levels during a brief window -- after a sizable, brief rally -- is fomenting the likelihood for a corrective dip.

Dollar Basket
Mar Contract DX; (NYSEARCA:UUP), (NYSEARCA:UDN)
Extending its bounce Thursday tested 80.45 resistance that must hold to launch a new downleg targeting 79.80.

Eurodollar
Mar Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Room for extending the dip down to 1.3700 was tested and retested Thursday morning, now needing no further delay to resume the prior decline if a retest of the highs can be avoided.

Gold
Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Despite extending down overnight from Wednesday's relatively muted reaction to the FOMC minutes, Thursday's session only ranged narrowly around its shallower opening gap down. The "ineffectual pessimism" makes any initial strength Friday likely to extend higher intraday.

Silver
Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Gapping down only slightly Thursday and ranging narrowly sideways held 21.65 support, whose break would suggest a deeper pullback underway targeting 20.70.

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
The reaction down from attacking 134-00 extended Thursday back to 132-12, which had triggered the original buy signal. The proximity to a gap outstanding below at 132-08 makes any recovery premature if not yet filling the gap to neutralize its attraction below.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Still ranging around 103.00 as the front-month rolls from March to April. Two consecutive higher closes already confirmed a third eventual higher close outstanding, but resistance at 103.00 suggests a dip back toward 101.00 may precede fresh highs.

Natural Gas
Mar Contract NG; (NYSEARCA:UNG), (NYSEARCA:UNL)
Surging overnight to a fresh high at 6.40 from 5.89 was retraced to 5.89 intraday. That also produced a bounce, albeit to 6.30. Maintaining the rally's momentum and avoiding a corrective dip to 5.55 requires holding 6.03-6.06 as support.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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