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Did Gold's Slide Finally Clear the Way for a Rally?


Recovering into today's close wasn't too optimistic; it was just premature.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Only hours after recent support (and me) finally having had enough to make a break lower likely, an unlikely double-digit break lower plunged sharply. Then it recovered entirely on Friday's jobs report. Could that have finally neutralized enough selling pressure for the rally to resume? Almost.

Dollar Basket
Friday's break back under 82.10 suggests at least 81.65 will be tested before any credible bottom can form.

Sep Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
The reaction to Friday's Employment Situation report bounced off of the 1.3225 pullback limit to retest the rally's 1.3333 target.

Oct Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
The corrective dip to 1297.50 developed entirely overnight in a plunge that extended down to 1283.00. The Employment Situation report reaction spiked back up to probe 1312.50. It was still being tested, keeping alive potential for retesting at least 1297.50. Back above 1319.00-1320.00 would resume the rally.

Sep Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Friday's spike up gained more than $1 to test 20.26. Its reaction down ranged narrowly under 20.00, but any renewed strength would be credible for resuming the rally.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Friday's favorable reaction to the Employment Situation report helps to confirm the week's lows did fulfill meaningful selling pressure. A retest of the lows down to 131-06 is probably needed eventually to form a durable bottom.

Crude Oil
Sep Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Fresh highs attacking 109.00 Thursday night were rejected back down to 106.50, but not under 106.00-106.50 Friday which would have confirmed momentum was reversing down to 103.60.

Natural Gas
Sep Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:UNG, UNL)
Drifting to fresh lows into the weekend without accelerating the drop suggests that Monday may finally test "higher prior lows," so that its reaction back down into the lower consolidation could form a bottom.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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