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Did Gold Rally Too Soon and Too Much to Extend Any Higher?


Plus: Long bonds' FOMC rally may be premature.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Employment Situation report -- that was pretty much Friday's story, except for several significant reversals. That should keep things volatile coming into the new week.

Dollar Basket
Having fulfilled almost all of the downside targets through Thursday, Friday's reaction to the Employment Situation report surged from 79.55 to 79.93. That filled the gap back to Tuesday's close, which sent price back down all the way. Fresh lows under 79.40 seem a minimal requirement at this point.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Friday's reaction down to the Employment Situation report filled the gap back to Tuesday's 1.3810 close. That quickly recovered to the rally's original 1.3885 target. A probe of prior highs at 1.3915 is now likely.

Jun Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Friday's plunge in reaction to the Employment Situation report originated from an opening bounce to 1285.00 resistance. The low attacked the gap back to the prior Thursday's 1270.40 open and then reacted up to 1305.00. The 1303.00 resistance was still being tested at the close, so no buy signal triggered. A lot of buying pressure was expended before a solid bottom could form. The door is open to rallying, but back under 1289.00 and 1285.00 would target new lows.

May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
The Employment Situation report's reaction surged to within a nickel of 19.75 resistance. Almost any higher would have reversed the trend. Instead, the bounce did create room to absorb another downdraft that retests the low, so a better bottom could form.

30-Year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Having fulfilled the rally's sole objective to probe prior highs, the Employment Situation report's reaction easily tumbled 1-1/4 points to 134-16. That also represented what has become "lower prior highs," whose test as support launched a 2-point rally to fresh highs at 136-16, with further room up to 137-00.

Crude Oil
May Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Not much volatility greeted the weekend, but exiting it by recovering 100.50-100.65 would signal a probe of the 104.00 high under way.

Natural Gas
Friday's gradual slide under 4.71 support puts into play tests of 4.61 and potentially also 4.41, so long as 4.71 now holds as resistance.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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