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Crude Oil's Big Bounce Only Delayed the Lower Targets


Resistance was tested Wednesday, and held, with an attraction outstanding below.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: From the precious metals pullback to the energies excessive bounces, recent trending is being put to the test, and those various tests should resolve Thursday.

Dollar Basket
Gapping up Wednesday didn't extend any higher intraday. But a second consecutive higher close Thursday would nonetheless confirm the pullback was resolving up into a new upleg.

Mar Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Sliding overnight greeted Wednesday's open already in decline under the 1.3645 sell signal. A second consecutive lower close Thursday would confirm the range's upper end had held its test and that a new downleg is underway.

Feb Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Tuesday's drop under the 1246.00 pullback limit was extended Wednesday, at least initially. A recovery back to the open's gap doesn't prevent extending down Thursday, but it keeps the door open to recovering. Initial weakness that doesn't gap down under Wednesday's 1233.50 low or immediately break it would more likely recover to resume the rally, confirmed above 1248.50.

Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Holding a test of "lower prior highs" Tuesday didn't prevent gapping down further Wednesday. The gap back up to Tuesday's close was nearly recovered, its difference potentially reflecting pessimism, which would be bullish from a contrarian perspective.

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Tuesday's dip to its minimum 130-18 pullback limit extended overnight to greet Wednesday's open, attacking the minimum 130-02 pullback limit. A third higher close remains outstanding.

Crude Oil
Feb Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Tuesday's choppy ranging launched a session-long rally Wednesday that trended through the 93.65 bounce limit by mid-morning, on the way to 94.65. Its recovery would have been bullish before extending down last week to the target area. It is still resistance. Back under 93.65 would put back into play the 90.50-91.25 target area.

Natural Gas
Despite probing above it intraday Wednesday, the close settled back at or under the 4.36 corrective bounce limit that was tested Tuesday. There is no reason to further delay resuming the decline Thursday, let alone any bearish reason to resume the bounce.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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