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Crude Oil's Surge Confirms a Rally Underway


Meanwhile, natural gas met and held its downside objective.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Crude oil's surge is confirming its rally has begun playing out, while natural gas probed fresh lows to fulfill the downleg's objective.

Dollar Basket
Thursday's probe above the rally's 83.35 target did not extend. An immediate reversal down would be credible for gaining traction. Extending the rally would require two consecutive higher closes.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
The decline's 1.2955-1.3020 target continued to hold Thursday. Its reaction up was too ineffectual not to expect more basing before any rally could be credible.

Aug Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
A bounce held 1237.00 resistance before extending to new lows under 1200.00 Thursday afternoon. If not absorbed without further delay, the next lower objective of 1190.00 would be in-play.

Jul Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Another bounce to 18.88 resistance was rejected Thursday by a drop back to the 18.35 low. Closing back above 19.00 would now suffice to signal momentum reversing up.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Thursday's probe back above 135-00 resistance had better luck than Wednesday, extending to fresh relative highs at 136-00. But the probe was relatively subdued, undermining its ability to avoid another downdraft.

Crude Oil
Aug Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Wednesday's brief dip to 93.70 had required extending up almost immediately Thursday to avoid a more bearish turn. The surge through 96.00 to 97.40, suggests the gap back to 98.45-99.00 is in-play.

Natural Gas
Aug Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:UNG, UNL)
Thursday's new low fully tested the outstanding 3.55-3.62 objective, which is capable of ending the decline. Closing back above 3.70 would trigger at least a steep short-squeeze.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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