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Crude Oil Has Extended Its Pullback


Checking the rally's extension before it fulfilled buying pressure can allow more accumulation.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Crude oil extended its pullback Monday instead of resuming its rally, which had resumed prematurely last week. That might have bought some time for a little more accumulation to extend the rally.

Dollar Basket
Having held 83.00 resistance into the weekend, the decline was vulnerable to extending. Monday's fresh lows down to 82.15 must be rejected back above 83.00 Tuesday to avoid extending the decline.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Friday's test of 1.3145 resistance jeopardized the decline's resumption. Monday's open had extended the bounce to fresh highs testing 1.3220. A second consecutive higher close Tuesday would confirm a bigger rally leg underway. Otherwise, the decline should resume with a vengeance sometime before Wednesday's open.

Aug Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
The window had all but closed for resuming the drop that began Wednesday with its pivot reversal since Thursday's test of 1285.00 resistance wasn't rejected before Friday's open. Sunday night's surge and Monday's extension tested 1335.00. Probing above 1335.00 Tuesday but holding it again as resistance would signal at least a corrective dip underway targeting 1321.00 or 1297.50.

Sep Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Gapping up through 20.00 allowed the session to extend higher, leaving at least two attractions outstanding below at 18.88 and new lows.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Despite extending Monday's gap up above 135-16 higher intraday, it was retraced to test 135-16 into the afternoon. But filling the gap back down to 132-24 is still compromised if the drop isn't resuming aggressively by mid-morning Tuesday.

Crude Oil
Aug Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Failing to produce a second consecutive higher close Friday prevented entrenching the rally's momentum. Monday's dip back down to within a dime of the rally's prior target of 106.15 basis Sep (106.35 basis Aug) must react back up above 107.70 Sep (108.00 Aug) to reinstate momentum to the next higher target at 110.50 (110.65-110.75).

Natural Gas
Monday's break under 3.73 was not timid. But it did leave outstanding the gap back up to Friday's close that will need to be filled, and which should inhibit extending down meanwhile.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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