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Crude Oil and Precious Metals Fulfilled Bounce Targets Today


This is something to consider when wondering whether or not commodities are back.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Gold's minimum target was tested Thursday -- and exceeded. Silver didn't do too badly, either. A second consecutive higher close Friday would signal a much bigger bounce underway. Avoiding a much bigger bounce would require dropping deeply into the weekend.

Dollar Basket
Thursday's deep gap down to test 82.50 was retraced almost entirely back into positive territory at 83.00. The afternoon drifted lower to test 82.80, keeping alive potential for resuming the decline into the weekend.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Pent-up buying pressure from Wednesday's narrow ranging, combined Thursday with the requirement to rally immediately for the decline to avoid extending down. The open gapped up sharply and tested 1.3100. But an immediate dive back down into negative territory under 1.300 struggled to recover into positive territory above 1.3025. The rally's resumption still cannot afford any delay.

Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
The 1456.00 target was met early Thursday, and later exceeded to test 1468.00. A second consecutive higher close would put into play 1513.00. A pullback has room down to 1446.00 before putting into play a target at 1429.00, whose break would resume the decline to new lows.

May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Thursday's gap up dipped back down to the 23.55 buy signal before resuming the rally to test the 24.15 target above 24.30. Now 24.15 must hold as support to maintain the rally's momentum.

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Thursday's shallow gap down spent the session ranging very narrowly around the 147-26 sell signal. Not extending down despite stocks and metals extending higher suggests the 149-14 target remains in-play.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
After a slow start Thursday, a second consecutive ~$2.30 rally tested the 93.55-93.75 target. Any higher high now requires that pullbacks hold 92.95 as support.

Natural Gas
Wednesday's extra dip prevented Thursday from resuming the rally, instead requiring a new accumulation pattern to form. An intraday probe of fresh lows was recovered to close positive, allowing almost any initial strength Friday to extend higher. But a close above 4.35 is still needed to resume the rally.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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