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Crude Oil Testing One Target, but Is There Another?


The rally's target has been fulfilled and needs a reason to extend.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Crude oil's surge through its target may have entrenched the upleg so that it can afford to pause momentarily.

Dollar Basket
Tuesday's break extended lower Wednesday, confirmed at least one more lower close is in play.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Tuesday's bounce extended higher Wednesday, especially after the FOMC minutes, making last week's confirmed breakout unlikely to resume without first forming a new distributive pattern.

Jun Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
An overnight retest of Monday's night higher formed a Double Top that reversed down to 1302.00-1303.00 support, which was recovered entirely in reaction to the FOMC minutes. So long as support holds, there remains potential for extending the bounce to 1317.00 before the decline's last downleg begins.

May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Gapping down Wednesday held 19.75 support, and then rallied after the close in reaction to the FOMC minutes. There remains potential up to 20.75, so long as 19.75 holds as support.

30-year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Wednesday's gap down held 132-28 as support to maintain potential for filling the gap back up to 134-06.

Crude Oil
May Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Extending Wednesday through the original 102.35-102.60 target to 103.55, where closing back under 103.25 would jeopardize this leg's momentum.

Natural Gas
Fresh highs Wednesday suggest a bottom is in, but not that this leg will avoid correction down to 4.22. In any case, there is not currently a signal in play.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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