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Crude Oil Still Trying to Base


Its relative performance Sunday night and Monday has increased the likelihood for an upside resolution.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Crude oil's relative calm compared to other market Sunday night and Monday morning suggest that it cannot attract new selling sponsorship. So it should outperform on any whiff of commodities rallying.

Dollar Basket
The rally extended higher initially Monday, but eventually retraced to unchanged. Sellers gained no traction, and the open's gap up above was left outstanding, so no sell signal was created or triggered.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
The decline extended lower initially Monday, but eventually retraced to unchanged. Buyers gained no traction, and the open's gap down below was left outstanding, so no buy signal was created or triggered.

Aug Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Overnight highs testing 1300.00 were reversed into negative territory before Monday's open, eventually testing 1275.00, as the wide volatility in this area becomes more entrenched.

Jul Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
The decline's 19.37 target was retested Monday, and produced a shallower bounce than last week. There remains potential for probing fresh lows down to 18.88-19.00.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
The drop extended down sharply overnight to test and retest the 133-24 target, which was later probed down to 133-04. It was all recovered, filling the gap back to Friday's 135-01 close. Its resistance held through the close, and the gap back down to Monday's 133-12 open remains outstanding to attract price down before a durable bottom can form.

Crude Oil
Jul Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Monday morning's intraday weakness held Friday's ~93.15 lows after recovering from under 92.70 overnight. Ranging narrowly through the noon hour produced a bounce to 95.60, attacking the 96.00 buy signal. The rally should extend higher without much delay if a new downleg will be avoided.

Natural Gas
Monday's downtrending session filled the gap back to the prior Friday's 2.76 close, neutralizing its attraction below. Recovering to close positive after probing fresh lows intraday Tuesday would help to form a bottom.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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