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Crude Oil Still Might Rally

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Another warning shot across the bow has left no time for further delaying a valid rally leg.

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The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: If crude oil intends to rally, its delay in extending Wednesday's gap up now suggests a more aggressive beginning is needed to confirm.

Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (NYSEARCA:UUP), (NYSEARCA:UDN)
Having held another day under the bounce limit, a retest of recent lows is still underway.

Eurodollar
Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Ranging narrowly Wednesday at or under 1.3110 only further suggests at least a blip-up to fresh highs is needed before reversing down. So, reversing down first would be premature.

Gold
Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Tuesday's test of 1390.00 and 1393.50 may have chipped away at their support, but first they launched a bounce back up toward Monday's highs at 1410.00 that resolved down. Fresh highs would be credible for extending higher, while the next dip to 1390.00 and 1393.50 should be in the form of a plunge.

Silver
May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Wednesday's gap up tried extending higher only to range sideways and close at session lows. Closing back under 22.35 would resume the decline next targeting 21.80 - actually, closing back under 22.35 should extend without delay to 21.80

30-year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Tuesday's testing of 140-05 was on the precipice of dropping, so Wednesday's gap up that extended higher helped to reassert that the pattern may be bottoming. Back above 141-12 would start to signal momentum reversing up.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Wednesday's early surge to fresh highs was consolidated back down around Tuesday's 94.25 highs, but was otherwise maintained to put 96.00 into play, and probably also 98.10, so long as pullbacks now hold 93.45 as support.

Natural Gas
Apr Contract NG; (NYSEARCA:UNG), (NYSEARCA:UNL)
Ranging narrowly Wednesday ahead of Thursday's EIA report suggests only that the first trending attempted from the range is likely to be false. So, a fresh low that recovers back above 4.01 would be credible for launching a rally leg, but rallying first to 4.11 would more likely fail.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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