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Crude Oil Still Might Rally


Another warning shot across the bow has left no time for further delaying a valid rally leg.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: If crude oil intends to rally, its delay in extending Wednesday's gap up now suggests a more aggressive beginning is needed to confirm.

Dollar Basket
Having held another day under the bounce limit, a retest of recent lows is still underway.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Ranging narrowly Wednesday at or under 1.3110 only further suggests at least a blip-up to fresh highs is needed before reversing down. So, reversing down first would be premature.

Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Tuesday's test of 1390.00 and 1393.50 may have chipped away at their support, but first they launched a bounce back up toward Monday's highs at 1410.00 that resolved down. Fresh highs would be credible for extending higher, while the next dip to 1390.00 and 1393.50 should be in the form of a plunge.

May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Wednesday's gap up tried extending higher only to range sideways and close at session lows. Closing back under 22.35 would resume the decline next targeting 21.80 - actually, closing back under 22.35 should extend without delay to 21.80

30-year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Tuesday's testing of 140-05 was on the precipice of dropping, so Wednesday's gap up that extended higher helped to reassert that the pattern may be bottoming. Back above 141-12 would start to signal momentum reversing up.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Wednesday's early surge to fresh highs was consolidated back down around Tuesday's 94.25 highs, but was otherwise maintained to put 96.00 into play, and probably also 98.10, so long as pullbacks now hold 93.45 as support.

Natural Gas
Ranging narrowly Wednesday ahead of Thursday's EIA report suggests only that the first trending attempted from the range is likely to be false. So, a fresh low that recovers back above 4.01 would be credible for launching a rally leg, but rallying first to 4.11 would more likely fail.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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