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Crude Oil Rested Today


A big drop in crude oil this week was absorbed and retraced. But the recovery can tolerate only a brief pause.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: What FOMC giveth, the hangover taketh away... as was the case this week with crude oil. Its two-day $4 rally revisited the last bounce's target, all but requiring a new rally leg. But buyers were tired and in need of a rest.

Dollar Basket
Fresh lows overnight down to 80.15 were not tested intraday, which bounced to 80.55. Retesting the overnight low before extending any higher would be likely to form a bottom. Otherwise, extending any higher would target 81.00.

Dec Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Fresh highs overnight essentially tested the next higher resistance at 1.3580. A pullback has room down to 1.3485 before starting to signal a more substantial drop underway targeting 1.3333.

Dec Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
The 1363.00 target had been met soon after the 1341.00 target, further pressuring the rally's momentum. The next higher resistance at 1377.00-1381.00 is likely to hold if tested prior to at least a modest corrective pullback, preferably a pullback all the way back down to 1341.00.

Dec Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Wednesday's recovery extended higher after the FOMC news, attacking the 23.55 resistance. Its test is likely so long as 23.00 holds as support.

30-year Treasury
Dec Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Probing above 132-00 created room for a pullback down to 131-10 while keeping alive potential that a bottom has been forming. The pullback's test must resolve up into the weekend, or else breaking back under 131-02 would signal a new downleg underway.

Crude Oil
Oct Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
The recovery extended higher Wednesday's night to probe above 108.75 resistance. Although its test reacted down to test 106.75 intraday Thursday, retesting 108.75 was probably more for chipping away at resistance than for refueling sellers.

Natural Gas
Fresh high up to 3.82 on the EIA report were reversed down sharply intraday to 3.68. Wednesday's low held, but not by enough for confidence in resuming the rally. Any lower low would reverse momentum down.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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