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Crude Oil Met Its Target -- Now What?
The rally is finally getting aggressive, just when crude's longstanding target is met.
Rod David    

Editor's note: Beginning next week, this column can be read daily at RodDavid.com.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Wednesday's volatility enabled crude oil to essentially meet its target, for the euro to potentially resume its decline, and for natural gas to discount Thursday's coming EIA report. None of which need extend Thursday. But gold's balancing act is getting old.

Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (NYSEARCA:UUP), (NYSEARCA:UDN)
Last Thursday's 80.31 opening gap was filled Wednesday, and held. The reaction down has room to 80.00 before suggesting the rally won't extend.

Eurodollar
Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Wednesday's low retested last week's low, and held. There is no requirement to retest Wednesday's low, except that the decline has likely resumed so long as 1.1.3700 isn't recovered.

Gold
Jun Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Gapping down Wednesday just enough to retest 1289.00 without breaking lower wasn't "ineffectual pessimism," since prior sessions' lows weren't probed intraday. And the session remained in negative territory, so 1289.00 seems to have lost its elasticity. Downtrending shouldn't be far behind.

Silver
May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Wednesday's hovering just above 19.25 support wasn't necessarily bullish, but its break isn't any likelier to extend down.

30-Year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Tuesday's recovery from fresh lows had been retraced entirely before Wednesday's open, and extended down to probe fresh lows attacking 136-08. That's one of the last two lines of defense against already beginning a bigger decline instead of first waiting to retest last week's high.

Crude Oil
May Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
The targeted retest of prior highs up to the 104.00 area was fulfilled Wednesday. The day's range expansion suggests that buyers have more energy to at least test 104.50 either Thursday or Friday, and closing above it would signal a much bigger leg underway.

Natural Gas
May Contract NG; (NYSEARCA:UNG), (NYSEARCA:UNL)
Wednesday was the last safe day for a pullback ahead of Thursday's EIA report, but a dip back to the last relative low wasn't rejected in time to signal the pullback was complete. Immediately testing the 4.42 area Wednesday would help to launch a bullish reaction.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Crude Oil Met Its Target -- Now What?
The rally is finally getting aggressive, just when crude's longstanding target is met.
Rod David    

Editor's note: Beginning next week, this column can be read daily at RodDavid.com.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Wednesday's volatility enabled crude oil to essentially meet its target, for the euro to potentially resume its decline, and for natural gas to discount Thursday's coming EIA report. None of which need extend Thursday. But gold's balancing act is getting old.

Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (NYSEARCA:UUP), (NYSEARCA:UDN)
Last Thursday's 80.31 opening gap was filled Wednesday, and held. The reaction down has room to 80.00 before suggesting the rally won't extend.

Eurodollar
Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Wednesday's low retested last week's low, and held. There is no requirement to retest Wednesday's low, except that the decline has likely resumed so long as 1.1.3700 isn't recovered.

Gold
Jun Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Gapping down Wednesday just enough to retest 1289.00 without breaking lower wasn't "ineffectual pessimism," since prior sessions' lows weren't probed intraday. And the session remained in negative territory, so 1289.00 seems to have lost its elasticity. Downtrending shouldn't be far behind.

Silver
May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Wednesday's hovering just above 19.25 support wasn't necessarily bullish, but its break isn't any likelier to extend down.

30-Year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Tuesday's recovery from fresh lows had been retraced entirely before Wednesday's open, and extended down to probe fresh lows attacking 136-08. That's one of the last two lines of defense against already beginning a bigger decline instead of first waiting to retest last week's high.

Crude Oil
May Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
The targeted retest of prior highs up to the 104.00 area was fulfilled Wednesday. The day's range expansion suggests that buyers have more energy to at least test 104.50 either Thursday or Friday, and closing above it would signal a much bigger leg underway.

Natural Gas
May Contract NG; (NYSEARCA:UNG), (NYSEARCA:UNL)
Wednesday was the last safe day for a pullback ahead of Thursday's EIA report, but a dip back to the last relative low wasn't rejected in time to signal the pullback was complete. Immediately testing the 4.42 area Wednesday would help to launch a bullish reaction.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
< Previous
  • 1
Next >
No positions in stocks mentioned.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Daily Recap
Crude Oil Met Its Target -- Now What?
The rally is finally getting aggressive, just when crude's longstanding target is met.
Rod David    

Editor's note: Beginning next week, this column can be read daily at RodDavid.com.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Wednesday's volatility enabled crude oil to essentially meet its target, for the euro to potentially resume its decline, and for natural gas to discount Thursday's coming EIA report. None of which need extend Thursday. But gold's balancing act is getting old.

Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (NYSEARCA:UUP), (NYSEARCA:UDN)
Last Thursday's 80.31 opening gap was filled Wednesday, and held. The reaction down has room to 80.00 before suggesting the rally won't extend.

Eurodollar
Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Wednesday's low retested last week's low, and held. There is no requirement to retest Wednesday's low, except that the decline has likely resumed so long as 1.1.3700 isn't recovered.

Gold
Jun Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Gapping down Wednesday just enough to retest 1289.00 without breaking lower wasn't "ineffectual pessimism," since prior sessions' lows weren't probed intraday. And the session remained in negative territory, so 1289.00 seems to have lost its elasticity. Downtrending shouldn't be far behind.

Silver
May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Wednesday's hovering just above 19.25 support wasn't necessarily bullish, but its break isn't any likelier to extend down.

30-Year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Tuesday's recovery from fresh lows had been retraced entirely before Wednesday's open, and extended down to probe fresh lows attacking 136-08. That's one of the last two lines of defense against already beginning a bigger decline instead of first waiting to retest last week's high.

Crude Oil
May Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
The targeted retest of prior highs up to the 104.00 area was fulfilled Wednesday. The day's range expansion suggests that buyers have more energy to at least test 104.50 either Thursday or Friday, and closing above it would signal a much bigger leg underway.

Natural Gas
May Contract NG; (NYSEARCA:UNG), (NYSEARCA:UNL)
Wednesday was the last safe day for a pullback ahead of Thursday's EIA report, but a dip back to the last relative low wasn't rejected in time to signal the pullback was complete. Immediately testing the 4.42 area Wednesday would help to launch a bullish reaction.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
< Previous
  • 1
Next >
No positions in stocks mentioned.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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