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Crude Oil Is Pushing Hard on Resistance


The long-awaited fresh high might be a revitalized rally leg.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Gold's double-digit drop Sunday night came close to satisfying targets before bouncing sharply intraday. Avoiding new lows is still unlikely. Meanwhile, crude oil behaves as if it wants to put in more than a corrective bounce.

Dollar Basket
Monday's dip eventually probed under the 83.95 pullback limit. A second consecutive lower close Tuesday would confirm it failed to hold. Otherwise, closing back above 84.45 would signal the rally resuming to 85.30.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Gapping up slightly and firming throughout the day did not undermine the potential for resuming the decline to 1.2745.

Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
The extended 1333.00 target was attacked twice to within $3 Sunday night. Its reaction up to 1398.00 Monday was excessive optimism, although so was the pre-open surge to 1362.00. Back under 1357.00 would resume the decline targeting new lows. Closing above 1383.00 for two consecutive sessions would signal a bigger bounce underway targeting 1455.00-1460.00.

May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Sunday night's steep drop to 20.25 was reversed up sharply to test 23.25, whose recovery is the minimum requirement to signal the trend reversing up. Otherwise, at least a retest of 21.80 is likely.

30-year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Monday's gap up was soon rejected, and the 143-13 sell signal was attacked. Recovering Monday's high above 144-18 may be the only path to avoid probing new lows.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
96.00 was finally exceeded, aggressively, testing 97.10. Pullbacks should now 96.00 as support for the rally to extend to 98.10, and potentially 104.50.

Natural Gas
Friday's recovery to the 4.05 buy signal was bullish, and Monday's open extended without delay to the 4.16 target. The reaction down from there held 4.05 as support, but 4.16 is still the buy signal for triggering a new rally leg.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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