Sorry!! The article you are trying to read is not available now.
Thank you very much;
you're only a step away from
downloading your reports.

Crude Oil Has More Support to Work Through

By

Session-long bounce from gapping down reflects too much optimism for a bottom.

PrintPRINT
The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Crude oil quickly met its next lower target after having spent so long before breaking under its last consolidation range. Such a steep near-term adjustment suggests a major paradigm shift in economic perceptions.

Dollar Basket
Dec Contract DX; (NYSEARCA:UUP), (NYSEARCA:UDN)
Ranging narrowly Wednesdayranging didn't confirm Tuesday's drop, so no third lower close is required. That doesn't preclude the drop from extending anyway, and there is no active reversal signal. And not reversing down quickly would make Wednesday's hesitation irrelevant.

Eurodollar
Dec Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Wednesday's narrow sideways ranging didn't confirm Tuesday's rally, so no third higher close is required. That doesn't preclude the rally from extending anyway, and there is no active reversal signal. And not reversing down quickly would make Wednesday's hesitation irrelevant.

Gold
Dec Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Tuesday's extra push to 1341.00 without closing above it (still overlapping it at the close) proved to be its undoing, at least for this effort. Wednesday's open gapped down to test 1329.50 support. But 1329.50 missed the opportunity to break lower, similar to the 1341.00 test. Now closing under 1321.50 is needed to signal momentum reversing back down.

Silver
Dec Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Gapping down Wednesday only attacked the month's "lower prior highs" at 22.50, despite coming close early and then hovering through the day. That optimism is potentially bearish, unless rejected almost immediately Thursday by new highs for the rally.

30-Year Treasury
Dec Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
The rally extended Wednesday to a new high at 135-23, targeting 136-28 so long as pullbacks now hold 135-12. But momentum won't reverse down without closing under 134-24.

Crude Oil
Oct Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
The next lower target at 96.35 was tested at Wednesday morning's low. The balance of the session firmed, holding the 97.35 bounce limit that keeps alive potential for extending to the next lower target at 92.85-93.15.

Natural Gas
Oct Contract NG; (NYSEARCA:UNG), (NYSEARCA:UNL)
Wednesday's gap up helped to refuel sellers for extending the decline to fulfill its minimum third lower close, which was put into play by Tuesday's confirmation. There is potential for bottoming at 3.53-3.55, but closing under would signal new lows in-play.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
< Previous
  • 1
Next >
No positions in stocks mentioned.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
PrintPRINT

Busy? Subscribe to our free newsletter!

Submit
 

WHAT'S POPULAR IN THE VILLE