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Could Crude Oil Lead a Commodity Bounce?


It held big support today while other markets hit big targets.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Crude oil had sat out much of the other coverage's volatility through Wednesday. Thursday's reaction down has either begun another downleg, or else refueled buyers to resume the rally to fresh highs.

Dollar Basket
Wednesday's break above the 81.00 buy signal extended to 82.32 Thursday. Pullbacks must hold 81.72-81.82 to maintain the rally's momentum next targeting 82.75 and 83.35.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Thursday extended the drop from 1.3400 down through 1.3167. Bounces must hold 1.3270-1.3280 to maintain the decline targeting 1.2955-1.3020.

Aug Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Wednesday's FOMC reaction down from 1373.00 to probe under the 1351.00 target barely hesitated before extending to the next lower objective, new lows under 1290.00. Pre-open tests produced a bounce to the new bounce limit at 1307.70 before resolving down. There are not yet any lower calculable targets, so near-term price action should be defined as ranging around 1290.00, with room for noise down to either 1279.00 or 1262.00.

Jul Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Thursday's plunge is next targeting 19.37 and 18.88-19.00 so long as bounces now hold 20.20 as resistance.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
The drop extended down overnight to probe the next objective at 136-16 down to 135-26. Its bounce up to 137-00 was retraced entirely down to 135-20. Back above 136-30 would target 137-14 and 138-00. The decline's momentum otherwise remains intact.

Crude Oil
Jul Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
The rally never managed to close above its 98.45 target before getting caught in the reaction to Wednesday's FOMC statement. A pullback overnight into Thursday tested 95.00. Back above 96.25 would resume the rally targeting 101.25 and 106.50. Closing under 94.65 would signal the trend had reversed down.

Natural Gas
Thursday's gap down and tumble on the EIA report may have corrected the rally that got stuck Wednesday by only testing Tuesday's 3.95 high. But the rally cannot afford to hesitate resuming.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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