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Can Natural Gas Start a New Trend?


A second consecutive higher close for natural gas would confirm a rally leg underway.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: The natural gas rally effort started the week with a determined attitude. A second consecutive higher close Tuesday is all but mandatory to the effort, and to avoid resuming the decline.

Dollar Basket
Monday's narrowly ranging inside day serves the same purpose as Wednesday's similar setup, which is to attract the next trending attempt back to and through it in the opposite direction. Probing a fresh low and reacting up would essentially signal a new upleg underway.

Sep Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Monday's narrowly ranging inside day serves the same purpose as Wednesday's similar setup, which is to attract the next trending attempt back to and through it in the opposite direction. Probing a fresh high and reacting down would essentially signal a new downleg underway.

Oct Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Probing a fresh high overnight up to 1382.40 was unable to extend beyond the leg's 1375.00 target, as the balance of the session probed back under it down to 1362.20.

Sep Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Monday's narrow ranging continued consolidating the recent surge, with room for extending further intraday just slightly higher at 24.00.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Another fresh low Monday at 130-05 suggests that the decline's 131-06 target is extending, next targeting 129-10 or 128-14.

Crude Oil
Sep Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
[Rolling coverage forward from Sep to Oct, trading at a $.25 discount]
Already having tested 106.25 support, the rally could not afford another entire day's delay to resuming. But 106.25 was tested anyway throughout the day, which all but requires Tuesday's open to be in rally mode if its 110.50 target remained intact.

Natural Gas
Monday's gap up didn't extend higher intraday past 3.50, but did maintain its recovery above prior highs to give last week's 3.36 buy signal another chance at launching a new rally leg. At least 3.57 is currently targeted, with potential to 3.70.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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