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Can Gold Extend Higher?


Silver can't keep its head above water.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Gold's earlier rally did drag siver along with it as was expected -- grudgingly as was expected, too. If there's not enough sponsorship to take both any higher, then neither one should be capable of extending individually.

Dollar Basket
Friday's dip attacked Thursday's low, and not closing below it prevented the session from being a breakout. There is no requirement to extend any lower before bottoming, so extending lower through Monday's close would be bearish.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
The 1.3910 bounce limit was probed early Friday and tested throughout the day, but not recovered decisively. The high of its test also essentially filled the gap back to Thursday's gap up. A top is complete enough to launch a down leg, so extending higher Monday would be bullish.

Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Extending higher into Friday's open probed sharply higher after two consecutive higher closes triggered a breakout and confirmed it. Attacking 1388.50 didn't prevent a pullback from probing back to Thursday's ~1374.00 high.The next higher target at 1399.00 is in play so long as pullbacks now hold 1378.50 as support.

May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Gapping up sharply Friday and extending higher immediately was sorely missing that optimism when 21.75 resistance was tested minutes later. The steep reaction down to 21.30 still held positive territory. But the recovery can't tolerate a second consecutive lower close.

30-Year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Having closed above 133-04 resistance Thursday, extending higher overnight into Friday's open fulfilled the retracement, testing the recent Island up to 134-00. Now closing back under 133-04 would signal momentum reversing down, if only for a corrective dip targeting 132-08.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Firming Thursday, accelerated modestly into Friday's open, but the recovery attempt was premature when potential below remained outstanding at 97.35. Recovering 100.00 (+/- 15 cents) would start to suggest otherwise.

Natural Gas
Narrow ranging Friday didn't even try to invalidate the two consecutive lower clsoses that now require at least a third before any rally would be credible.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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