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Can Crude Oil Kick-Start Its Failing Recovery?


The window for gold to overcome its ongoing difficulty at resistance is closing.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Is crude oil about to follow gold's pattern of suddenly reversing its uptrend? The patterns are similar for having spent a couple of days challenging critical resistance without closing above it. So, a sudden reversal down would be vulnerable to extending relentlessly. More important, this pattern might begin repeating more widely across commodities.

Dollar Basket
Initial strength Tuesday stopped short of probing fresh highs before reversing back down. The 80.00 pullback limit held as support, so any initial strength Wednesday would still be credible for extending higher.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Tuesday's gap down was credible for extending, but it reacted back up into positive territory. Holding 1.3810 resistance would have been preferable to the pattern, but 1.3855 did hold, leaving the resolution down likely.

Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Fresh lows overnight into Tuesday's open were reversed into slightly positive territory, but not enough to suspect momentum is yet reversing up. There is no active signal.

May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Tuesday's narrow ranging didn't extend the decline, which still has an attraction above to 20.70 regardless of the pattern's eventual resolution.

30-Year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Tuesday's gap down was retraced almost entirely. The pattern's 134-22 objective above remains outstanding so long as pullbacks now hold 132-22 as support.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
So much time spent at 99.50-100.00 without extending higher was already far from optimal, even before Tuesday morning's dip to 98.80. Its recovery back up to 100.00 buys the resolution a little time, although the late dip back under 99.50 wasn't its wisest use.

Natural Gas
Gapping up sharply Tuesday helps to confirm that a bottom may have been forming. It also helps to confirm the bottoming is in its early stages, since the gap will need to be filled or at least attacked before extending higher would be credible.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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