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Can Crude Oil Keep Up Its Recovery Pace Into Wednesday?


Tuesday proved crude has bottomed, but not that a new rally leg is underway.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Crude oil's surge extended the bottoming effort that began with last week's brief probe under prior lows. The question now is whether the bottoming effort has ended, since the consolidation range's upper end is being challenged after expending so much energy so quickly.

Dollar Basket
Monday's gap up wasn't confirmed Tuesday. More so, Tuesday's open gapped back down to Friday's close under 80.70, and trended down intraday to attack Friday's 80.50 low. Back above 80.80 would signal another recovery attempt underway, but there is otherwise no active signal.

Dec Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Monday's gap down wasn't confirmed Tuesday. More so, Tuesday's open gapped back up to Friday's close above 1.3580, and trended up intraday to touch 1.3615 resistance. Back under 1.3545 would signal another reversal attempt underway, but there is otherwise no active signal.

Feb Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Fresh lows Monday night and Tuesday held two tests of July's lowest unfilled gap at 1217.50. But a second consecutive lower close, which was also under 1230.50 again, confirmed a bigger break underway. One more fresh low close might suffice. But an immediate recovery attempt would be premature and doomed to failure.

Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Tuesday's fresh low attacked the 18.90 target, creating a bounce limit at 19.10, whose recovery would signal the drop was ending.

30-year Treasury
Dec Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Tuesday's gap up didn't extend higher, leaving outstanding the decline's minimum target at 129-16, with potential to 128-10.

Crude Oil
Jan Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Any initial strength Tuesday was likely to extend sharply higher intraday, which Tuesday's early surge through 94.15 to 96.19 fulfilled. Closing above 95.00 puts into play a test of 97.15.

Natural Gas
Potential for extending up to 4.25 became more suspicious Tuesday when a fresh high above 4.00 reacted back down into negative territory. But a close under 3.88 is still needed to signal momentum reversing down.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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