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Have Commodities Markets Settled for the Week?


Except for bonds, Monday's action all developed within recent ranges.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Yesterday's Highlight: The new week doesn't seem to be starting anything new; more so, the various market areas are getting comfortable with their new ranges.

Dollar Basket
A little hesitation greeted the new week following the two-day surge from Thursday's lows. Monday's dip didn't reverse the trend down, and at least a fresh relative high remains likely near term. Friday's close was soon recovered.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Monday's opening bounce was more noise than relevant and didn't affect the drop's likelihood of resuming. In fact, it was rejected, if only to retest Friday's close.

Jun Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
An overnight surge tested 1303.00 resistance but drifted back down intraday to 1295.00. Breaking either way beyond that range is likely to extend at least $10 in that direction.

May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
After Friday's dip only touched 19.05, whose break would have launched a new downleg, Monday's gap up immediately filled the gap back to last Tuesday's toppy close at 19.65. There was no improvement intraday, not even a fresh high to reject. Pullbacks should now hold 19.30 to keep alive potential for resuming the rally.

30-Year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Monday's drift lower probed under the 133-16 sell signal to 133-05. A second consecutive lower close would confirm that 132-04 is in play.

Crude Oil
May Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Overnight strength tried again -- unsuccessfully -- to rally from the previously triggered 100.00 through 101.00 resistance to launch a rally targeting fresh highs above 104.00. Trying keeps alive the pattern, but almost any hesitation would be vulnerable to reversing down sharply.

Natural Gas
The new week didn't take any time delaying last week's triggered sell signals that are targeting 4.41. Fresh lows came within $0.02, which is close enough to qualify, but the downtrend remains intact so long as 4.48 holds as resistance.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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