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Futures Whimper Into the Weekend


Most liquid commodities were soft after Thursday's rally.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: The weekend wasn't greeted with any bravado. Attempts to extend the week's trending were unsuccessful, such as in bonds and in energies. Attempts to reverse other intraweek trends did not succeed, such as with currencies.

Dollar Basket
Sep Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Friday's gap up to 81.75 peaked short of 81.90 whose recovery would signal the pullback had ended, and another upleg was underway.

Sep Contract EC; (FXE)
Friday's gap down confirmed the relevance of 1.2570, which was the corrective rally's target met Thursday. A bounce filled the gap back to Thursday's close, which held as resistance. The 1.2425 pullback limit was not touched.

Dec Contract GC; (GLD)
Friday's currency volatility had little influence after Thursday's rally had already met significant resistance at 1677.50. The reaction down to 1665.00 still has room to test 1656.50 before suggesting it may damage potential for resuming the rally to 1700.00 and 1744.00.

Sep Contract SI; (SLV)
Friday's session only ranged narrowly supported just above the rally's 30.00-30.35 target. A break under 29.80-29.85 would be the first sign of momentum reversing down.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (TLT)
The bounce had become likely to extend further for a test of 149-00 resistance, which was tested Friday up to 149-04. Resistance held, suggesting the bounce has ended.

Crude Oil
Oct Contract CL; (USO)
Thursday's rejection of its fresh highs at 98.30 did not extend down to fresh lows Friday, avoiding a second consecutive lower close that would have signaled momentum reversing down. The rally could still resume, or at least the potential to 98.85 could be fulfilled.

Natural Gas
Sep Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
Yet another reaction down Friday from trying to recover 2.80-2.85, falling back to 2.71 after testing 2.88 overnight. An intraday probe above 2.85 remains likely to extend sharply higher intraday.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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