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Gold's Breakout? Let's Just See How the Weekend Treats It


Plus, the eurodollar gapped down.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Gold's attempt to launch a rally Friday would be credible if next week were to open with the same intent. But if a new upleg isn't underway at Monday's open, then a new downleg should be underway by Tuesday's close.

Dollar Basket
Sep Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
A second consecutive session testing 82.80 resistance Friday morning reacted down sharply. The upper-end of Wednesday's recovery session held its test as support down to 82.50. Almost any immediate firming Monday should extend higher to attack or to recover above Friday's 92.95 high.

Sep Contract EC; (FXE)
The challenge of holding 1.2300 support became greater at Friday's open by gapping down to 1.2270 and extending down to 1.2245. The test seemed to hold by bouncing steeply back up to 1.2322. But 1.2300 was still being tested at the close, - in fact, throughout the afternoon. Immediately firming Monday could extend higher, but almost any weakness should resume the decline.

Dec Contract GC; (GLD)
Another gap down Friday like Wednesday also recovered. This time the ~1620.00 prior highs were probed. Although the peak above 1627.50 reacted down, the ~1620.00 prior highs held as support through the close. A second consecutive higher close Monday would be credible for extending higher, and for avoiding a significant drop.

Sep Contract SI, ETF: (SLV)
Friday's gap down to 27.75-27.50 reacted up sharply and probed two-week old highs up to 28.30. The session still could not muster a positive close. Closing above 28.15 might be able to extend the bounce to its 30.00-30.35 target, but there is otherwise no signal.

30-Year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (TLT)
Friday's gap up to test 149-08 was equally productive as Thursday's steep reaction up to 148-08 from fresh lows, but neither gained traction. But the bounce should not extend any higher Monday for optimal confirmation that Thursday morning's 147-10 low will be retested down to the drop's 147-08 target.

Crude Oil
Sep Contract CL; (USO)
Despite the rally targeting 96.15/98.85 being free to resume, Friday's open gapped under the 92.65 pullback limit, and ranged around 92.65 throughout the day. The close recovered 92.65, and the rally remains free to resume.

Natural Gas
Sep Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
Thursday's failed spike up suffered further consequences Friday by gapping down to Monday's low at 2.85 and trending lower to 2.76 into the weekend. There is no active signal.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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