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Crude's Speedy Recovery Needs to Get Speedier

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Critical targets, levels, and supports for major liquid commodities.

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The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Crude oil's rally Monday recovered quite a bit of the reaction down from last week's highs. Almost any higher Tuesday would trap a lot of shorts, suggesting a big rally. The rally probably can't extend without more news like that from Iran, which triggered Monday's pop.

Dollar Basket
Sep Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Monday's dip held the 83.35 pullback limit as support to maintain the rally's momentum targeting 83.76.

Eurodollar
Sep Contract EC; (FXE)
One day after fulfilling the long-awaited retest of June 1's lows, Monday's open gapped up a little and firmed a little further from there to test the original 1.2324 target as resistance. Buyers gained no traction for the effort.

Gold
Aug Contract GC; (GLD)
Friday's close under 1584.00 was tested Monday by probing above it to almost 1594.00. Friday's highs held intraday, so back under 1584.00 would signal the decline had resumed.

Silver
Sep Contract SI; (SLV)
Despite gapping up and firming to spend all of Monday in positive territory, 27.50 held as resistance through the close to prevent triggering a rally.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (TLT)
Last week's recovery above 149-00 continued gaining traction Monday by closing above 150-06 and testing 150-23. The 153-04 target is in-play so long as 150-10 now holds as support. Meanwhile, a pullback can be absorbed down to 149-18 before signaling a new downleg underway.

Crude Oil
Aug Contract CL; (USO)
Last week's gap down from 87.00-88.00 to 84.50 never gained traction. The drop did require closing back above 86.50 to signal the rally had resumed, and Monday's bounce tested it to within $.02. Its immediate recovery Tuesday would be likely to probe last week's highs intraday.

Natural Gas
Aug Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
Friday's close under 2.83 was rejected by Monday's gap up back above it. The intraday high held 2.89, which must be recovered to signal the rally has resumed. A bigger pullback otherwise has room down to 2.76.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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