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One-Day Wonder? Today's Intraday Moves Didn't Extend Beyond Opening Ranges


Surprise remarks from the eurozone had an unsurprising effect on markets.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Surprise remarks from the eurozone had an unsurprising effect on markets overnight. More interesting is their lack of follow-through intraday. Look out for retracing Wednesday night's moves if new extremes Thursday night or Friday were to fail.

Dollar Basket
Sep Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Mario Draghi's remarks easily exploited Wednesday's gap down that had not yet recovered. Thursday's reaction extended sharply lower from 83.65 down to 83.00. That's essentially where the session closed despite testing 82.65 intraday. Back above 83.17 would signal a retest underway of the 84.15-84.25 high.

Sep Contract EC; (FXE)
Draghi's remarks easily exploited Wednesday's gap up that had not yet failed. Thursday's reaction gapped up from 1.2170 to test the prior two weeks' highs at 1.2300. Like Wednesday, price did not trend up intraday, inhibited by the gap back to Tuesday's 1.2165 close.

Aug Contract GC; (GLD)
The attraction back up to 1622.00 was attacked to within $2 in reaction to Draghi's remarks. Its test remains likely so long as 1612.00 now holds as support.

Sep Contract SI; (SLV)
Wednesday's premature bounce initially extended higher in reaction to Draghi's remarks. But 26.75 resistance held to push price back under 27.50. Fresh lows testing 26.00 remain likely.

30-Year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (TLT)
It is not surprising that price was weaker amid the dollar's drop and the stock market's rise. It is surprising that price was not very weak since the rally's 153-04 target had been met and held. Wednesday's 152-10 held a couple of tests as support, and the close was still testing 152-16 whose break would signal the rally's momentum had ended. One more higher high cannot be discounted, like a retest of Tuesday's overnight 153-11 high.

Crude Oil
Sep Contract CL; (USO)
Fresh highs in reaction to Draghi's remarks probed the 90.00 buy signal. The probe did not extend higher, as the balance of the session ranged sideways around 90.00. Any further delay to extending higher would be bearish.

Natural Gas
Aug Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
Wednesday's drop to its 3.05 pullback limit was rejected by Thursday's gap up. And intraday dive to lower lows on EIA news was recovered to close positive. This setup is a "pivot reversal" that is likely to extend to fresh highs without delay. Not extending higher immediately would be bearish.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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