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Is Meeting the Long-Bond's Target a Tell?

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Critical targets, levels, and supports for major liquid commodities.

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The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: The long bond hit its long-standing target Tuesday. At the same time, the attraction back up to Monday's gap open was neutralized. No higher target was put into play. If this doesn't mean that stock market disincentives like a falling euro and a flight-to-safety are easing, then the bond may be readying a surge higher.

Dollar Basket
Sep Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Monday's ranging around the recent 84.00 prior highs did not extend higher immediately Tuesday. But fresh highs were probed eventually up to 84.25. The breakout is very fresh, and should not need a pullback before extending higher, but still gets a benefit of the doubt so long as 83.85-83.95 holds as support.

Eurodollar
Sep Contract EC; (FXE)
No gap up Tuesday invalidated Monday's second consecutive lower close, requiring a third lower close. The next lower target at 1.1915 remains intact so long as 1.2140 holds resistance.

Gold
Aug Contract GC; (GLD)
Tuesday's volatile session recovered a gap down to 1572.50 back up to 1584.00 that nevertheless reversed down to fresh session lows testing 1568.00. And yet another bounce ended the day around unchanged testing Monday's 1577.00 close. A new downleg remains likely so long as 1584.50 continues holding as resistance.

Silver
Sep Contract SI; (SLV)
Tuesday's gap down recovered to retest Monday's high, but the pattern resolved down into the afternoon. Support at 26.00 is being chipped away, all but requiring new lows at this stage.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (TLT)
Having retraced Monday's 152-28 gap up above prior highs, to back under prior highs, Monday's 152-28 gap up could be filled to form a durable top. Its test Tuesday included touching the rally's 153-04 target, as was expected. The close was still testing Monday's 152-28 opening gap up. Back under 152-16/152-20 would be starting to rob the rally of its traction.

Crude Oil
Sep Contract CL; (USO)
A fresh low Tuesday held a test of the 87.85 prior low that Monday's crash had stopped optimistically short of touching. Tuesday's dip to 87.43 did not react up violently as if to restart the rally, but closing above 90.00 should rally aggressively. Closing under 87.50 would jeopardize the recovery potential.

Natural Gas
Aug Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
The rally extended to a second higher high at 3.19 since confirming its breakout, helping to entrench the rally. Pullbacks must now hold any test of 3.05 - and preferably 3.11 - to maintain the 3.26 target.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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