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Currencies Close the Week With a Curve


Critical targets, levels, and supports for major liquid commodities.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Big reversals among currencies tried Friday to undo their recent corrections and consolidations. They may have tried too hard. We'll know by Monday's close or Tuesday's open whether there was any follow-through, or if the recent trending will resume.

Dollar Basket
Sep Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Friday's bounce tested the 83.35 resistance whose break as support had put into play 81.85. Holding its resistance through Monday's close would be likely to resume the decline.

Sep Contract EC; (FXE)
Friday's gap down to fresh lows closed under the decline's 1.2180 target that had held previously. A second consecutive lower close Monday would be very bearish. There may be that challenge, this being a market that tends to duplicate Friday's action on Monday morning.

Aug Contract GC; (GLD)
Friday's gap down to test 1573.00 reacted back up quickly to test 1584.50 resistance. It held, and like Thursday, the balance of the day only ranged around Wednesday's 1583.00 high. The intraday low stopped optimistically short of touching Wednesday's low, suggesting that buyers are impatient. If sellers are weak hands, the pattern is likely to resolve down unless fresh highs above 1592.00 are recovered with no further delay.

Sep Contract SI; (SLV)
Friday's gap down back to the week's lows under 26.75 was retraced entirely to again test 27.25 resistance. Recovering from the repeated dips has been "ineffectual optimism" while chipping away at support. Any further delay to rallying would all but ensure trending down.

30-Year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (TLT)
Thursday's intraday bounce to 151-04 had peaked pessimistically short of filling the gap back to Wednesday's close before reversing back down to close Thursday at 150-18. That was potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective, underscored by Friday's big gap up above Wednesday's close that extended higher to test 152-00. The bounce is still targeting at least 152-06, whose recovery would put back into play 153-04.

Crude Oil
Aug Contract CL; (USO)
Thursday's surge allowed room for a pullback to 91.09, which was tested Friday to as low as 90.66 intraday before holding through the close. The gap back up to Thursday's 92.70 close should now try to attract price higher and resume the rally.

Natural Gas
Aug Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
Friday's session trended up to fresh highs at 3.08. This third higher close fulfills the minimum requirement for the two prior sessions' breakout and confirmation. It should extend higher anyway, since this is a market that tends to duplicate Friday's action on Monday mornings.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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