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The Pace of Crude Oil's Rally Accelerates on Schedule


Bonds and the dollar are trying to avoid breaks lower, while gold and the euro are looking for a second chance to rally.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Thursday's wild intraday swings resembled freshly caught fish thrashing about on the dock. Bonds and the dollar are trying to avoid breaks lower, while gold and the euro are looking for a second chance to rally. Meanwhile, crude oil continues swimming upstream to escape.

Dollar Basket
Sep Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Thursday's gap down to fresh lows reacted back up temporarily into positive territory. That didn't prevent reversing back down to fresh lows at 82.80. The 81.85 target remains intact so long as Thursday's 83.25 high is not recovered.

Sep Contract EC; (FXE)
The warning after Wednesday's third consecutive intraday recovery was for an opening surge to a fresh high that would react back down. Wednesday's gap up above prior highs did reverse almost immediately into negative territory. The dip was recovered to trade out the day unchanged, so another rally effort should gain traction.

Aug Contract GC; (GLD)
Recovering 1584.50 would have signaled that Wednesday's fresh low had finally expended all available selling pressure. It was probed intraday, but ultimately held to close back under Wednesday's high. This is distributive action, and any rally requires gapping up above Thursday's 1591.50 high.

Sep Contract SI; (SLV)
Thursday's gap up testing 27.50 was reversed into negative territory instead of extending higher to trigger the 27.75 buy signal. The parameter remains intact.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (TLT)
Wednesday's narrowly ranging inside day was likely initially to break falsely in one direction, and then reverse in the opposite. Thursday's open gapped down sharply, and the session closed negative despite bouncing intraday into positive territory. The open's gap down did support the negative close, so recovering above the 151-04 interim high would trigger a rally targeting at least 152-06.

Crude Oil
Aug Contract CL; (USO)
Firming modestly Wednesday to test 90.00 required the rally to start extending higher aggressively if a deeper pullback was to be avoided. Thursday's open gapped up sharply and extended higher to attack 93.00. The rally targeting 94.55 and 100.15 remains intact so long as 91.10 holds as support.

Natural Gas
Aug Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
Thursday's second consecutive higher close confirmed Wednesday's breakout above 2.89, next targeting 3.26.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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