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Even Bernanke's Remarks Could Not Derail Crude's Rally


Crude oil keeps on trucking to new recovery highs. Can the euro be far behind?

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Crude oil keeps on trucking to new recovery highs. Tuesday's gap up above prior highs recovered entirely from dropping well into negative territory in reaction to Bernanke's testimony. Can the euro be far behind?

Dollar Basket
Sep Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Despite closing under its 83.35 sell signal Monday, reaction to Bernanke's comments Tuesday triggered a surge that filled the gap back to Monday's 83.67 opening gap up. And the 83.35 still ultimately held as resistance to keep 81.85 in-play.

Sep Contract EC; (FXE)
A steep sell-off on Bernanke's comments from 1.2290 to 1.2197 was recovered fully into the afternoon. Potential remains alive for extending up at least to 1.2395. Recovering this extra dip makes even higher highs likelier.

Aug Contract GC; (GLD)
Despite dropping sharply Tuesday morning to 1571.00 on Bernanke's comments, the gap back up to Monday's 1591.80 close was filled. Higher highs that had printed overnight to almost 1599.00 should be retested, which should also help to resume a rally to 1623.00-1624.00. Closing under 1582.00 would still signal momentum reversing down.

Sep Contract SI; (SLV)
A fresh low down to 26.72 was retraced entirely back up to recent resistance at 27.38. The repeated saves should be rewarded by some higher high, increasing chances for testing 27.75 and extending higher through 28.25 to 30.00-30.35.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (TLT)
Gapping down Tuesday back to Friday's 151-04 close robbed Tuesday's breakout of its traction. A bounce up to 151-18 resistance pushed back to fresh lows testing 150-26. Any lower close would have sealed a top, but there is otherwise still potential for testing 151-24, whose recovery would resume the rally.

Crude Oil
Aug Contract CL; (USO)
Gapping up to test 89.25 could not avoid detouring back under the 88.00 prior high in reaction to Bernanke's testimony Tuesday. But the entire dip was recovered to fresh highs attacking 89.50, maintaining the 91.00 target so long as 87.40 support is not broken.

Natural Gas
Aug Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
Tuesday's narrow, depressed ranging helps to drain optimism out of the pattern that might have been inhibiting a recovery. But a close above 2.89 still needs to trigger.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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