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Euro Starts the Week Without Any Friends, but Maybe With Fewer Sellers


Critical targets, levels, and supports for major liquid commodities.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Trash-talking the euro has reached Olympic proportion. Again. But Monday's gap down never really extended lower intraday. Almost any delay in extended down could be bullish.

Dollar Basket
Sep Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Friday had not confirmed Thursday's breakout, but it wasn't a sell signal. Monday's open gapped up to test Friday's 82.65 high, but only ranged narrowly around it intraday. Any further hesitation from the rally would be likely lead at least to a test of 82.15 support.

Sep Contract EC; (FXE)
Friday's 1.2560 close was not optimal confirmation to extending Thursday's break lower. Perhaps that's why Monday's opening gap down to 1.2495 did not extend much lower intraday, and then only temporarily. Tuesday's open must close lower to avoid a at least a corrective bounce back to 1.2610.

Aug Contract GC; (GLD)
Friday's post-close action had extended its intraday bounce to test 1572.50. The bounce extended higher Monday to test 1584.00. It was probed up to 1589.00 while RSIs diverged negatively. Back under 1576.00 would trigger a retest of last week's 1560.00 lows.

Jul Contract SI; (SLV)
Monday's steep rally from Friday's 26.65 close tested 27.30-27.50 resistance whose recovery could return quickly to 30.00-30.35, so long as 27.10 now holds as support.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (TLT)
Another stock market sell-off Monday, opening under Thursday's lows, and still the long bond could only attack 149-18. The gap back to Thursday's 149-07 close was filled, so there is no bearish reason to probe any higher. Closing above 149-18 would still get a benefit of the doubt for launching a rally.

Crude Oil
Aug Contract CL; (USO)
Having retraced 61.8% of Thursday's drop Friday back up to 80.15, breaking back under 79.35 would resume the decline. Monday's open gapped under it and extended down to 78.00. At least one more lower close remains likely.

Natural Gas
Jul Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
Despite not clearly triggering 2.62 Friday to put into play 2.83, Monday's open gapped up to test 2.73. Now 2.62 must hold as support to maintain the rally's momentum.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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