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Crude Oil Target Met and Held, Now Awaiting Buy Signal to Trigger


Critical targets, levels, and supports for major liquid commodities.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: FOMC news made for an interesting day that accelerated some patterns, and confirmed others. Meanwhile, crude oil finally fulfilled a long-standing target that is free to launch a new rally leg.

Dollar Basket
Sep Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Wednesday's volatile post-FOMC 82.00-81.40 swing held prior lows to suggest that sellers did not gain traction. But a close above 81.70 is needed to signal a rally leg underway.

Sep Contract EC; (FXE)
Wednesday's wide reaction to FOMC plunged to 1.2646 and then surged to a fresh high at 1.2753 that exceeded Sunday night's brief high. Closing negative back under 1.2700 suggests that buyers didn't gain traction, but a close under 1.2640 is still needed to trigger a downleg.

Aug Contract GC; (GLD)
Two days of "ineffectual optimism" above 1631.00 produced a dive Wednesday to fresh lows under 1608.00 down to 1590.50. A late surge to 1621.50 failed to close above 1616.50, which signals that momentum is reversing down. Considering the extensive probing below 1616.50 that preceded the close, a second consecutive negative close Thursday would be helpful confirmation.

Jul Contract SI; (SLV)
Wednesday's gap down tested 28.00 and so did the afternoon, both times recovering back to Tuesday's 28.50 close. The pattern remains unpredictable, although sellers seem to be pushing price down only grudgingly.

30-Year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (TLT)
A steep sell-off to fresh intraday lows down to 147-21 preceded Wednesday's FOMC announcement. Its reaction up to 149-10 was retraced almost entirely back down to session lows. Closing above 149-18 would now suffice to trigger a new rally leg underway. There is otherwise no active signal.

Crude Oil
Jul Contract CL; (USO)
Unfinished business below at 81.25 was finally tested Wednesday. Its retest below 81.00 was also very constructive to flushing out sellers. Closing above 83.00 would signal the drop's momentum was absorbed, possibly also reversing momentum up, which would be confirmed by closing above 84.00..

Natural Gas
Jul Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
Having held the 2.50 pullback limit Tuesday, Wednesday's gap up to 2.68 tested Tuesday's high. That extra room helped to absorb renewed selling that once again tested 2.50 as support. A lot of selling has been expended without breaking under support, but not yet rejecting the support test, just ahead of Thursday's EIA report.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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