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Uh-oh... Currencies Made New Trend Extremes Thursday

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Your need-to-know targets for liquid commodities.

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The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Currencies recovered Thursday from initially correcting Wednesday's breakouts, closing at new trend extremes to confirm their momentum remains intact. Immediate follow-through isn't required, but Thursday's intraday extremes should not prove to be trend extremes.

Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Despite gapping down Thursday, the session recovered to close at new relative highs. Its second consecutive higher close confirmed the breakout. While only 83.45 is targeted, breaking it could signal a much steeper rally is underway into and out of the weekend.

Eurodollar
Jun Contract EC; (FXE)
Despite gapping up Thursday, the session reversed down to close at new relative lows. Unless rejected immediately Friday, the break is now confirmed to be targeting 1.2255.

Gold
Aug Contract GC; (GLD)
Closing back under 1561.00 Thursday would have resumed the decline. Its support was probed, but only to launch a retest of Wednesday's 1572.00 area highs. The intraday volatility has continued to avoid triggering any parameter through a close.

Silver
Jul Contract SI; (SLV)
Thursday's dip held a retest of 27.50 and bounced back to unchanged levels around 28.00. But the balance of the session ranged sideways, avoiding a second consecutive higher close that would have confirmed momentum reversing up.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (TLT)
A shallower pullback overnight to 148-18 recovered to fresh highs Thursday at 150-26. Potential up to 151-14 (152-00 basis Jun) remains alive so long as pullbacks hold 149-06. Employment Situation report is due Friday morning.

Crude Oil
Jul Contract CL; (USO)
The decline's 86.00 target was met at Thursday's 85.86 low. A steep reaction up to 87.64 was retraced back down toward 86.00. A retest of 86.00 is likely, but it is also likely to hold near-term.

Natural Gas
Jul Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
Thursday's modest gap down nevertheless probed fresh pullback lows at 2.38. A reaction up to 2.50 ways retraced back to unchanged levels - and only back to unchanged levels, as sellers did not gain traction for their effort. Now any close above 2.50 would target 2.66 and 2.76.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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