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Uh-oh... Currencies Made New Trend Extremes Thursday


Your need-to-know targets for liquid commodities.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Currencies recovered Thursday from initially correcting Wednesday's breakouts, closing at new trend extremes to confirm their momentum remains intact. Immediate follow-through isn't required, but Thursday's intraday extremes should not prove to be trend extremes.

Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Despite gapping down Thursday, the session recovered to close at new relative highs. Its second consecutive higher close confirmed the breakout. While only 83.45 is targeted, breaking it could signal a much steeper rally is underway into and out of the weekend.

Jun Contract EC; (FXE)
Despite gapping up Thursday, the session reversed down to close at new relative lows. Unless rejected immediately Friday, the break is now confirmed to be targeting 1.2255.

Aug Contract GC; (GLD)
Closing back under 1561.00 Thursday would have resumed the decline. Its support was probed, but only to launch a retest of Wednesday's 1572.00 area highs. The intraday volatility has continued to avoid triggering any parameter through a close.

Jul Contract SI; (SLV)
Thursday's dip held a retest of 27.50 and bounced back to unchanged levels around 28.00. But the balance of the session ranged sideways, avoiding a second consecutive higher close that would have confirmed momentum reversing up.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (TLT)
A shallower pullback overnight to 148-18 recovered to fresh highs Thursday at 150-26. Potential up to 151-14 (152-00 basis Jun) remains alive so long as pullbacks hold 149-06. Employment Situation report is due Friday morning.

Crude Oil
Jul Contract CL; (USO)
The decline's 86.00 target was met at Thursday's 85.86 low. A steep reaction up to 87.64 was retraced back down toward 86.00. A retest of 86.00 is likely, but it is also likely to hold near-term.

Natural Gas
Jul Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
Thursday's modest gap down nevertheless probed fresh pullback lows at 2.38. A reaction up to 2.50 ways retraced back to unchanged levels - and only back to unchanged levels, as sellers did not gain traction for their effort. Now any close above 2.50 would target 2.66 and 2.76.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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