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Currencies Entering a Make-or-Break Phase


Your need-to-know targets for liquid commodities.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Currencies aggressively extended their trends Wednesday. Extending them further Thursday could lead to even steeper moves into and out of the weekend.

Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Tuesday's peak at the 82.70 target suggested that either the rally was ending, or that its pace was about accelerate. In fact, Wednesday's open gapped up to 82.70 and the session trended up to new highs at 83.10, next targeting 83.45 so long as Thursday's close is not back under 82.70.

Jun Contract EC; (FXE)
Potential for extending down to 1.2255 seems intact as Wednesday's open gapped down and the balance of the session trended down throughout to 1.2380. An interim bounce back up to 1.2485 or to 1.2525 cannot yet be discounted.

Aug Contract GC; (GLD)
While avoiding a bullish close back above 1560.00, or a bearish close under 1547.00, Wednesday's session plunged to 1532.00 and then recovered up to 1571.00. The solid buying at 1534.00-1537.00 might suggest a bottom is in, except that impatient buyers keep preventing any pent-up buying pressure. Closing back under 1559.00 would resume the decline, to at least retest the lows. There is otherwise no active buy signal.

Jul Contract SI; (SLV)
Retesting and holding 27.50 support was capable of forming a bottom. Its test Wednesday did react back up. But now a second consecutive higher close Thursday is needed to signal momentum reversing up. There is otherwise no active buy signal.

30-year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (TLT)
The long wait for triggering a sell signal may have ended Wednesday, with the gap up and intraday trending to new highs testing 149-22. A second consecutive higher close Thursday would confirm a breakout targeting 152-00. Otherwise, closing Thursday back under 148-25 would suggest at least a deeper corrective dip underway.

Crude Oil
Jul Contract CL; (USO)
Several days after putting into play the next lower target at 86.00, the interim bouncing finally ended. The drop resumed with a vengeance, gapping down $1.40 and extending down another $2 to test 87.35. A second consecutive lower close Thursday would confirm the break, although a bounce has room to 88.60.

Natural Gas
Jul Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
Still not finding a bottom, so no active pattern or parameter - with EIA reporting Thursday.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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