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It's All Down to the Dollar


Gold and silver have lost their own support.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: The Dollar Index peaked Tuesday at a significant target, while gold and silver fell to or toward their own relevant support. If these markets do not reverse their recent direction Wednesday, then their paces should accelerate sharply.

Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Sunday night's dip to 81.90 recovered to close above the 82.25 pullback limit, allowing Tuesday's surge to 82.71 to fulfill the 82.70 target. Fresh highs could still test 83.45 so long as 82.25 still holds as support.

Jun Contract EC; (FXE)
The 1.2555 bounce limit was probed Sunday night, but held through Tuesday's open to launch a probe of fresh lows down to 1.2462. Potential for extending down to 1.2255 depends upon not recovering 1.2555.

Jun Contract GC; (GLD)
Monday night's rally to 1583.50 was reversed sharply down to 1545.70. Now closing back above 1560.00 would help to launch another rally leg targeting 1611.00. Otherwise, closing under 1547.00 would signal the ranging had ended, likely to begin trending down.

Jul Contract SI; (SLV)
Having been robbed last week of near-term predictability, the pattern tested fresh highs at 28.75 Sunday night, and dove to 27.71 Tuesday morning. There is no active buy signal, and probably wouldn't be calculable without first retesting and holding 27.50 support.

30-year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (TLT)
Relative calm Sunday night, Monday night, and Tuesday didn't attract bond sellers. Perhaps it was due to the gap back to last Wednesday's 148-08 close that needed filling first. Its reaction back to 147-24 support isn't relevant, except that it was tested instead of the rally extending. A close under 147-14 is still needed to reverse momentum down.

Crude Oil
Jul Contract CL; (USO)
Despite bouncing Tuesday to 92.21, a reversal back down to 90.25 closed again back under 91.10-91.50 to maintain the likelihood for resuming the decline, next targeting 86.00.

Natural Gas
Jul Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
Tuesday's selling go carried away, testing 2.47 instead of bouncing off of 2.52 to end the correction. There is no active parameter.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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