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Friday's Narrowly Ranging Euro Reflects a Very Nervous Market


Signals, targets, resistance, and patterns are noted for major liquid commodities.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: The euro attracted its share of selling pressure ahead of the two-day illiquidity, and ahead of growing expectations for Greece's exit. But there was no runaway selling as the market stared each other down into the weekend.

Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
82.25 held a test as support overnight and through Friday's open to maintain potential for extending the rally to its 82.70 target. The balance of the session only ranged narrowly around Thursday's 82.50 high, so 82.25 must still hold as support.

Jun Contract EC; (FXE)
Overnight strength essentially held 1.2550 as resistance, keeping alive the drop's momentum. A fresh low under 1.2500 was retraced back to unchanged where most of the session ranged narrowly. But the drop's momentum remains intact so long as 1.2550 is not recovered.

Jun Contract GC; (GLD)
Thursday afternoon's pullback did not extend down any lower than 1550.70. But that wasn't enough to resume the decline, allowing a reaction up to 1570.00-1573.00. A signal should be generated sometime Monday.

Jun Contract SI; (SLV)
Friday's inside day did not extend above 27.85-28.11, which would have reversed momentum up. The lack of sponsorship on a Friday has robbed the pattern of any near-term predictability.

30-year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (TLT)
Friday's narrow ranging did not affect any previous forming patterns, so there remains no active signal.

Crude Oil
Jul Contract CL; (USO)
Friday's inside day did not affect any existing patterns, so the 86.00 target remains in-play.

Natural Gas
Jul Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
Thursday's narrow range, - especially against the background of its weekly EIA report, - had made the rally more likely to correct down before extending up. Friday's open did break immediately under 2.70 (2.62 basis Jun) on the way to 2.61. Another low at 2.52 should end the correction so the rally can resume uninhibited.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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