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Have Commodities Run Out of Sellers?


Gold and the euro are down in unison.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: The euro's plunge to new lows and gold's plunge back to its lows each fulfilled big targets, made all the more bullish for testing them in unison. At this stage of their patterns, the alternative to lower lows is a big, bullish bounce.

Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
The attraction back to last week's 81.93 high helped to extend the recovery to its 82.00 target, probed Wednesday up to 82.35. A pullback has room down to 81.95 before signaling a bigger drop underway, or preventing the rally from extending to 82.70.

Jun Contract EC; (FXE)
Tuesday's rejection of Monday's dubious late strength didn't wait long to suffer the consequences, and to retest last week's lows. Wednesday's open gapped down sharply and eventually tested new lows at 1.2545. A bounce could test 1.2655 before suggesting the drop had ended, but any higher could quickly reverse up sharply.

Jun Contract GC; (GLD)
Tuesday's gap down to 1578.00 had signaled the bounce was over, putting into play 1552.50 and 1553.00. Both were fulfilled Wednesday morning. A recovery into and out of the close retested the 1561.00 opening print, suggesting that sellers gained no traction for their efforts. That much of the recovery was too late to signal momentum reversing up, so there is no active signal.

Jun Contract SI; (SLV)
Wednesday's gap down tested last week's 27.10 low, and held. Back above 27.85-28.11 would signal a bottom had formed, and that momentum had reversed up.

30-year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (TLT)
Tuesday's gap down to 146-28 wasn't the product of strong hands, and it had narrowly avoided triggering a sell signal there. Wednesday's open confirmed, by gapping up sharply and extending to fresh highs. Last week's 148-22 overnight high was attacked but wasn't touched, and its reaction down to 148-08 wasn't deep enough to reverse momentum down, so there is no active signal.

Crude Oil
Jul Contract CL; (USO)
Not immediately rallying Wednesday made the decline likely to resume. Closing lower confirmed the 86.00 target is in-play.

Natural Gas
Jun Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
The morning and afternoon both ranged only narrowly around 2.72. That seems somewhat optimistic ahead of Thursday's EIA report, so there is still potential to resolve up.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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