Sorry!! The article you are trying to read is not available now.
Thank you very much;
you're only a step away from
downloading your reports.

Commodity Price Action: Not All Turning Points Are Created Equal


The euro made fresh highs while gold and treasuries showed little strength.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: The euro made fresh recovery highs Monday, without gold coming along, after lagging behind gold on Thursday. A useful object lesson in not relying on correlated markets to turn in unison, or to the same degree.

Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Despite already testing it at Friday's weak close, Monday's probes under 81.30 failed to gain traction, and 81.30 was still being tested at the close. Back above 81.55 would resume the rally next targeting 82.00.

Jun Contract EC; (FXE)
Friday's last-minute surge to 1.2788 wasn't immediately rejected, but it was retraced somewhat. And then it was probed up to 1.2814. Monday's second consecutive higher close suggests a bottom is forming, targeting 1.2920, so long as 1.2725 were to hold as support.

Jun Contract GC; (GLD)
The third consecutive session of the upcrash setup normally peaks into that morning's strength. But there was no strength Monday as the session ranged narrowly around unchanged. A fresh high would still target 1611.00, and back under 1578.00 would signal momentum reversing down.

Jun Contract SI; (SLV)
Monday's gap down retraced all of Friday's gains back to Thursday's close. But the balance of the session only ranged narrowly sideways instead of extending down. So, the gap back to Friday's 29.70 close is likely to be filled.

30-year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (TLT)
Bonds naturally softened as stocks rallied Monday, losing their utility as a "flight-to-quality." But weakness was relatively soft compared to the stock market rally, holding a pre-open test of the 147-14 sell signal. Its break would still be bearish, but a retest of 148-22 has become more likely first.

Crude Oil
Jun Contract CL; (USO)
Not only was 91.75 recovered through Monday's close, but Monday's open was already well on its way to rejecting Friday's close under it. Recovering Friday's 92.70 high before the close would have been more convincing than afterward. But any initial follow-through Tuesday would get a benefit of the doubt for extending higher.

Natural Gas
Jun Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
Monday's open gapped down and the balance of the session weakened to 2.59 - effectively still testing 2.62 as support through the close. The gap back to Friday's close will want to be filled, sooner rather than later, especially if Tuesday's open were not immediately resuming Monday's drop.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
< Previous
  • 1
Next >
No positions in stocks mentioned.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Featured Videos