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Price Action Summaries for Currency, Energy, Precious Metals


What the opening levels on Monday will tell you about commodities' directions.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: The euro did react to Spain's downgrade, falling overnight to fresh lows. Then it reacted to Italy's debt placement, rallying to fresh highs. It's difficult to criticize a recovery like that.

Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
A bounce in reaction to Spain's downgrade was nonetheless reversed down to new lows at 78.72, so 78.50's test seems unavoidable.

Jun Contract EC; (FXE)
Overnight dip to 1.3160 was recovered before Friday's open, avoiding a sell signal, and serving instead as a slingshot to probe fresh highs up to 1.3273. Unless rejected immediately Monday, 1.3320 and potentially 1.3333 may be unavoidable.

Jun Contract GC; (GLD)
An overnight dip under 1657.00 was recovered to probe fresh highs at 1668.40. Back under 1657.00 would signal momentum reversing down. Otherwise, the rally is now targeting 1688.50.

Jul Contract SI; (SLV)
The higher prior lows at 31.25-31.25 tested Thursday were still being tested throughout Friday. Reluctance to fill a nearby outstanding gap at 31.75 reflects constructive pessimism, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. So long as 31.05 support is not broken, the recovery attempt should extend to 32.30.

30-Year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (TLT)
An overnight rally to fresh highs at 143-18 was retraced all the way back down to 142-10, whose break through a prior close already indicated the pattern is distributive. That doesn't prevent fresh highs while awaiting confirmation under 141-20, but it makes fresh highs likely to fail. Still, a close back under 142-10 Monday is needed to maintain the bearish posture, and to avoid retesting 143-18 intraday.

Crude Oil
Jun Contract CL; (USO)
Friday's session recovered an overnight dip to 103.75 and an intraday dip to 104.00 to probe Thursday's 104.90 high. Recovering the two dips is still bullish accumulation to justify not already breaking higher into the weekend, but a close above resistance is still needed to trigger a rally leg.

Natural Gas
Jun Contract NG; (UNG)
Friday's open gapped up from Thursday's late plunge, and extended higher intraday to test 2.20 (basis Jun, 2.11 basis May). Opening almost any firmer Monday would be likely to trend up into the afternoon, potentially to fresh highs above 2.30.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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