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Why Gold's Two-Day $40 Rally Can't Afford to Hesitate


Here are specific price action signals from cash, precious, and other commodities.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Gold's steep rally Thursday extended Wednesday's stunning recovery from fulfilling my unfinished business below.

Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Fresh lows overnight at 78.90 already retraced before Thursday's open, but attacked intraday Thursday. A quick recovery back above 79.15 - and then a quick rally from there - may be the only way to avoid extending the decline at an accelerated pace down to 78.50.

Jun Contract EC; (FXE)
Fresh highs overnight were already retraced before Thursday's open, but attacked intraday. Still potential up to 1.3295/1.3333 so long as 1.3185 holds as support.

Jun Contract GC; (GLD)
Having immediately recovered Wednesday's $25 plunge that fulfilled the 1633.00 and 1626.50 downside targets, Thursday's session became vulnerable to extending sharply higher. Thursday's open did gap up, extending to fresh highs through the afternoon up testing 1661.00. Any higher close would put into play another attempt at 1688.50, but closing under 1657.00 would signal momentum reversing down.

May Contract SI; (SLV)
Thursday's gap up extended back up to "higher prior lows" at 31.25. It is possible that Wednesday's 29.92 low sufficed for the 29.55 target. But there is room up to 31.75 and 32.30 before signaling a more durable recovery underway.

30-Year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (TLT)
Bounce potential to 142-30 was fulfilled within three ticks by Thursday's gap up. The balance of the session trended back down to within five ticks back to Wednesday's 141-27 close. Presumably, "ineffectual optimism" prevented filling the gap, and closing under 141-20 would still confirm that momentum has reversed down durably.

Crude Oil
May Contract CL; (USO)
The recovery from re-testing 102.25 support eked slightly higher Thursday, now almost pessimistically avoiding a probe of 105.25 resistance. The premise (see chart here) continues to be that momentum is shifting upward. But a surge to fresh highs Friday would be very appropriate at this stage of the pattern if it does intend to resolve bullishly.

Natural Gas
May Contract NG; (UNG)
Wednesday's rally to 2.07 did lead to higher highs Thursday, but they were sharply higher highs at 2.18 that proved unsustainable after the morning's EIA report. A plunge into the close fell to 2.00, when 2.02 needed to hold as support. Post-close action did immediately recover to probe back above 2.02, and now a close Friday back above 2.05 would suggest another rally leg could develop.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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