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Natural Gas Surges


Energy sector improves across the board while precious metals and currencies lag.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Natural gas repeated Monday's surge, probing fresh multi-week highs. Crude oil is only testing this week's highs, but it is poised to play catch-up as the energy sector charts improve across the board.

Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Slightly lower fresh lows were probed again under 79.20, but ultimately the decline did not extend. Closing back above 79.50 would target 80.30.

Jun Contract EC; (FXE)
Wednesday's choppy range around Tuesday's 1.3220 high was very narrow, especially when considering the stream of FOMC events that triggered extreme volatility in gold. The pattern was vulnerable to extending higher, but did not extend higher despite the day's catalysts, suggesting that a break back under 1.3185 is now ready to launch a downleg. Still, closing under 1.3135-1.3145 would confirm.

Jun Contract GC; (GLD)
Almost any weakness Wednesday from Tuesday's close above 1640.00 would have been likely to probe back into Monday's 1626.50-1633.00 range. In fact, price was already slipping when FOMC news triggered a plunge to 1625.00. Amazingly, and not at all foreseen, the plunge was retraced just as quickly to 1645.50. The near-term attraction below has been neutralized, and a second consecutive higher close Thursday would confirm momentum has reversed up. There is otherwise no active signal.

May Contract SI; (SLV)
Wednesday's dive to fresh lows at 29.92 was retraced back up to 30.60. This was still negative territory, undermining the recovery attempt, leaving in-play 29.55 and 28.70.

30-Year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (TLT)
Intraday lows Wednesday at 141-03 were recovered to 142-00 into the close. Closing under 141-20 would still confirm momentum has reversed down more durably. There is otherwise no buy signal, but room for bouncing to 142-30 without yet triggering a new rally leg.

Crude Oil
May Contract CL; (USO)
Having left no unfinished business below Tuesday, closing above 1052.5 would trigger a new rally leg. Wednesday's session got off to a false start, but ultimately attacked the week's highs at 104.57. Just holding 104.00 as support is likely to resolve in triggering the rally.

Natural Gas
May Contract NG; (UNG)
Wednesday's low held 1.98 to maintain potential for extending Monday's surge. Its gap up to 2.02-2.03 dipped slightly before repeating the surge to 2.09. Now the rally remains intact so long as 2.02 holds as support. UNG, meanwhile, surged as well, above both its 14.95 signal that was tested Monday, and above Monday's 15.10 high. A second consecutive higher close Thursday would confirm higher targets in-play.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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