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Gold's Last Gasp, or a Running Start at a Bigger Bounce?


Gaps in crude oil and other commodity indicators are summarized as well.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Gold's bounce left outstanding two attractions below - the gaps back to Monday's open and close. Almost any early weakness Wednesday would confirm the decline has resumed. Otherwise, a bigger corrective bounce is underway.

Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Monday's bounce had peaked upon testing 79.70-79.75 resistance, instead of closing above it to signal a rally underway. Tuesday's reaction was more attracted to the gap back down to Friday's 79.30 close, and to probe under its 79.20 low. There is no near-term unfinished business above or below. Closing back above 79.50 would trigger a bigger rally leg targeting 80.30.

Jun Contract EC; (FXE)
Monday's drop neutralized unfinished business below by filling the gaps back to last week's prior high closes around 1.3145. Tuesday's rally filled the gap back up to Friday's 1.3220 close. There is no near-term unfinished business above or below. A pullback under 1.3185 has room down to 1.3135-1.3145 before triggering a bigger downleg. The bounce could otherwise extend next up to 1.3300 or 1.3333.

Jun Contract GC; (GLD)
Tuesday's gap up filled the gap back to Friday's 1642.00 close.Since Tuesday's 1650.00 high was retraced $8 to close back under Friday's 1647.00 prior high, almost any weakness would target the outstanding a gap back to Monday's 1633.00 close, and to its 1626.50 open. There is otherwise no active buy parameter.

May Contract SI, (SLV)
Despite gapping up Tuesday above Monday's 30.88 high, the bounce peaked upon testing recent "higher prior lows" at 31.11. Closing under 31.50 would resume the drop targeting 29.55 and 28.70.

30-Year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (TLT)
Rallying stocks removed the flight-to-quality premium from testing 143-04, to dip back down to last week's 142-10 highs. The pullback has room down to 141-20 before confirming momentum has reversed down. A bounce could first test 142-30 and still resolve down.

Crude Oil
May Contract CL; (USO)
Monday's close above 102.75 produced a gap up Tuesday that tested 104.00. Its reaction down filled the gap back to Monday's 103.00 close, leaving no unfinished business below. Closing Wednesday above 105.25 would put into play 108.25.

Natural Gas
May Contract NG; (UNG)
2.02 was probed overnight, but Tuesday's close was trying to defend 1.98 support, which must hold to maintain potential for extending Monday's surge.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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