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The Euro's Next Step Should Be a Big One


The euro tested its bounce target, and Friday was an "inside day" for gold.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: The euro popped up more aggressively than was expected, but tested its objectives nonetheless. Its next step should be a big one -, whether up or down.

Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
The likely test of 79.50 was actually a gap down to 79.50, that then extended much lower intraday, to within $0.07 of the 79.15 objective. Its test is likely so long as bounces now hold 79.50.

Jun Contract EC; (FXE)
Three consecutive sessions absorbed selling pressure and returned to resistance. This all but rewarded buyers by testing the next higher resistance at 1.3195. Another gap was filled up to 1.3220. Closing under 1.3185 would signal the bounce had ended. Otherwise, its next higher resistance is 1.3280.

Jun Contract GC; (GLD)
Friday's "inside day" should confirm that, despite two lows this week, each producing a $23 intraday rally, new sponsorship for a rally is not being attracted.

May Contract SI; (SLV)
Closing Friday between 31.45-31.75 prevented a signal from triggering. The range-bound pattern still has room intraday up to 32.30 and down to 31.30 before chipping away entirely at resistance or support.

30-Year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (TLT)
Thursday's limited gains were a little shallow considering the broader stock market weakness. So, Friday's stock market strength retraced Thursday's gains, and then some. But session losses were limited into the close. Signals remain unchanged.

Crude Oil
May Contract CL; (USO)
Friday's gap up probed above 104.70, further confirming that 102.25 will either hold as support to launch a new rally leg, or else break lower to fresh lows. Now 103.35 should hold as support to maintain the recovery's potential - or at least be recoverable immediately at Monday's open.

Natural Gas
May Contract NG; (UNG)
A shallow bounce Friday did not reject Thursday's new lows. The next opportunity to signal a bottom forming can not come until Monday's close.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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