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Natural Gas Falls Down the Well to Another New Low


An immediate recovery attempt would be a compelling short, plus specific technical indicators for the dollar, gold, and oil.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: There's something unnatural about natural gas. Thursday not only fell to new lows, but fell aggressively. The pattern does not allow a credible immediate recovery, so an immediate recovery attempt would be a compelling short.

Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Thursday's opening gap up repeated the ongoing pattern to now make a test of 79.50 likely. And unless recovered quickly, a break under 79.50 would target 79.15.

Jun Contract EC; (FXE)
Yet another opening dip was recovered Thursday, this time back into positive territory. This is more of the same pattern already forming, making 1.3200's test likely - and now potentially 1.3295 if 1.3200's tests are not rejected immediately.

Jun Contract GC; (GLD)
Fresh lows down to 1631.20 at Thursday's open all but confirmed that Tuesday's $23 intraday recovery was not bullish. So, Thursday's $23 intraday recovery should not be bullish either. That's right, gold rallied that much off the open's low. It was retraced back under 1640.00. Closing under 1635.00 would further confirm the new downleg underway.

May Contract SI; (SLV)
Recovering yet again from 31.45 to probe above 31.75 suggests that a bigger bounce must precede any credible downleg. A bigger bounce may even gain traction. But only two consecutive higher closes above 32.30 can prevent resolving down to fresh lows.

30-Year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (TLT)
Not having any active signal, a "flight-to-quality" was triggered Thursday by stock market weakness. But Tuesday's 142-10 highs held the session-long test, despite starting the session only slightly lower at 142-00. The 141-06 sell signal is unchanged, and no buy signal is available.

Crude Oil
May Contract CL; (USO)
An intraday dip to 101.67 was recovered enough to end the day still testing 102.25. Holding its support would keep alive potential for triggering a buy signal above 103.35 and 104.70. Closing under 102.25 would target 98.95.

Natural Gas
May Contract NG; (UNG)
Thursday's gap down to new lows recovered only briefly during the weekly EIA report. And that reacted down sharply to much lower lows at 1.90. Still no bottom.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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