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Gold and Crude Oil Testing Critical Levels Friday


Several other high-profile futures are also testing critical levels.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Gold met and held a major target at Friday's high, without any recent refueling to its recent rally. Meanwhile, crude oil's wild intraday range is trying to prevent its Double Top pattern from completing.

Dollar Basket
Sep Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
The extended narrow ranging around prior lows had not been rejected, making the pattern likely to attempt trending down, which Friday did. Now, the extended narrow ranging that launched Friday's break makes it likelier to fail. Closing back above 80.35 would signal momentum reversing back up.

Sep Contract EC; (FXE)
The extended narrow ranging around prior highs had not been rejected, making the pattern likely to attempt trending up, which Friday did. Now, the extended narrow ranging that launched Friday's break makes it likelier to fail. Touching resistance just above at 1.2820 and reversing back under 1.2740 would be likely to trade down sharply.

Dec Contract GC; (GLD)
An overnight retracement easily held the pullback limit to resolve up sharply on Friday's Employment Situation report, fulfilling the 1744.00 target up to 1745.40. So long as pullbacks hold 1716.50 as support, the rally can extend further to 1770.50 and 1814.00.

Sep Contract SI; (SLV)
Despite already having met its 33.00 target Thursday, the rally extended Friday up to 33.77, putting into play 35.40 so long as 32.95 now holds as support.

30-year Treasury
Dec Contract US; (TLT)
Potential for extending down to 148-02 reached only a 1-point loss down to 148-10 before reacting back up sharply on the Employment report. Filling the gap back to Wednesday's 150-27 close produced another downleg back to Wednesday's 149-05 low. Now closing under 148-27 would target 146-26.

Crude Oil
Oct Contract CL; (USO)
Friday's early bounce tested both 96.15 and 96.48, before reacting down sharply to 94.08. All of which was in-line with the bearish Double Top that was forming. But the balance of the session recovered to fresh highs at 96.74, still testing 96.15 and 96.48.Closing Monday above 97.00 would be credible for invalidating the Double Top, which otherwise remains intact.

Natural Gas
Oct Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
The reaction down since fulfilling the 2.89 target has quickly retraced back to the rally's origin. Friday's drop was so substantial that trading was halted temporarily. Its 2.66 low is unlikely to recover immediately, and there is currently no attractive setup.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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