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Euro and Crude Resistance Get a Little Recognition


Daily commodity spot: A breakdown of the day's seven most active commodity futures.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight Friday's tests of significant resistance in the euro and crude oil proved influential Monday. But their shallow reactions down suggest that one more thrust higher for each is coming.

Dollar Basket
Mar Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Monday's gap up back above two-week-old lows at 78.50 undermined Friday's new low close. The intraday dip barely avoided filling the gap back down to Friday's 78.37 close, which may yet be filled. Meanwhile, recovering 78.80-78.85 would trigger a bigger bounce targeting 79.25.

Mar Contract EC; (FXE)
Friday's test of 1.3485 resistance reacted down Monday back to 1.3367. Closing under 1.3344 would trigger at least a corrective pullback targeting 1.3200. Otherwise, 1.3425 must be recovered to resume the rally, next targeting 1.3575.

Apr Contract GC; (GLD)
Friday's close while testing 1778.00 narrowly avoided invalidating Thursday's signal that had put into play new highs. Sunday night's drop under 1763.00 was recovered intraday up to 1781.00, but that was retraced back down to 1774.00 and lower. New highs all but depend upon a sharp rally beginning without further delay.

Mar Contract SI; (SLV)
A fresh low overnight at 35.05 was recovered intraday to test last week's highs above 35.60. The burden of proof was on sellers, and they did not deliver. A rally must begin by Tuesday morning to avoid another sell-off attempt at new lows.

30-Year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (TLT)
Falling stocks and rising dollar Sunday night encouraged bonds to trend up and attack recent highs at 144-26. Stocks turned up and the dollar firmed, but bonds kept ticking higher. The rally should at least touch 144-08, especially so long as pullbacks are contained to 143-20. Back under 143-10 would signal momentum already reversing down.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (USO)
A softer open Monday never extended down, but the balance of the session ranged under 109.35. Back under 108.00 would signal the rally had ended. It should otherwise still test 111.00.

Natural Gas
Mar Contract NG; (UNG)
Breaking under 2.51 Monday waited until the noon hour's end before trending down that afternoon to 2.44. Back above 2.51 would be bullish, but there is otherwise no bullish pattern i-play.
Author's note: Want to learn more about how I arrive at the above opinions? Join me for a live webinar after next Wednesday's close, February 29. Learn the basics of my methodologies, and then request an instant analysis of any market you are trading. Email me for access info at
Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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